BOZmail – March 9th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY MARCH 9th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

1-20 SANDOWN

Picked the wrong dogmeat race on Friday with two screaming shorties getting stuffed including the two runner race one. So no joy taking on the odds on shots, I revert to more cautious fare on Saturday in the attempt to keep the kitty alive for Cheltenham week.

The Knot is Tied looks the pick for this juvenile handicap hurdle after LTO form received a serious boost and there is cover from a couple of others with a chance – namely Glenpark and Twenty Twenty.

Leaving the way clear to lay the Newland topweight who has three negatives on top of a very lacklustre effort back down in lower than this grade LTO. Must carry a stopping 12-5 and give weight to the field. Stable is without a winner in last month and a half (only 55% have run to form in last fortnight) and there is a big question mark over the soft ground based on its form in France. Arguably the class horse in the race hence 9/4 on the tissue and available on the exchange at 4.0 as I write, does need a serious return to form for which the odds look stacked against.

Small lay play on the day to stop the rot of the past two days.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAYon KATPOLI (around 3.8 if possible and no greater than 4.5)

This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 59/84 = 70.23% :   BACKS: 13/54 = 24.07%

THE BOZ’s CHELTENHAM BLOG – DAY ONE:

Can’t say I’m coming into Cheltenham week in flying form and caution ever my watchword. Brought up on the perils of trying to get rich here and firmly educated into the knowledge that it is the bookmakers who do that. Even so,I couldn’t not be having a go and whilst I have no obvious weapons grade stand-outs this year (No Sprinter Sacre on the horizon I fear) I do still have some serious horses to support and will be having both my traditional yankee– which is detailed in the article I wrote for Betting Insiders two weeks ago and brought up to date below – and playing our free bet Staggered acca started on Wissahickon two weeks ago as a daily attempt to nap a winner starting on Tuesday with the Champion Hurdle. Soft ground or good ground – I have the winner on whichever it is!

I also play festival top jockey each year and my two this year are Jack Kennedy(around 7.8 on Betfair as I write) and Harry Cobden (who is serious value at around 20.0). I have many telling me the Nicholls revival stalls here. I still think he’s a serious dark horse for top trainer if Mullins and Elliot don’t arrive mob handed as does look a possible to me this year. Nicholls knows the time of dayat Cheltenham and had some lean years after Ruby left him and owners began doubting. His two new young jockeys have reversed the trend over the past eighteen months and Cobden in particular looks ready to me to take his place among the heavyweights. And so on to that yankee article which appeared originally like this:

GIVE ‘EM ‘ELL

“She’s a competitive competitor. That’s just the sort of competitor she is.” Equestrian Legend Dorian Williams’ contribution to Colemanballs

There are many legendary tales from the Cheltenham betting ring. Some exaggerated, some pure myth. My favourite two are both fact and carry the Boz senior stamp of authenticity (he knew because he was there). Passed down to me by my Dad in the cradle along with learning to count in the One – 6/4 – Two fashion.

The first is the customer of my Dad’s whose system consisted of only backing horses that begin with the letter L. His name was Laurence Lewis so you see his reasoning and I was reminded of him twice at the weekend. First when I was watching the French racing at Angers (what an education that is on the new Sky Sports channel) where one of their part thoroughbred races was framed only to include horses whose racing names begin with the letter F! No wonder we want to leave the EU, eh? I rang in to ask whether they have a race for Laurence where all horses had to begin with letter L (working their way through the alphabet apparently so Laurence is soon to get his day in the spotlight and a chance to achieve the bookmakers’ dream exam question of backing every horse in a race and showing a profit. Tried that yet on the Betfair exchange?). Whilst I was on hold waiting to get my question in to the show, I also remembered my second favourite Cheltenham ring story about the ‘clever’ doctor who was known for his Festival chant with which he roused the terraces before the first race start – “ THE BOOKMAKERS – GIVE ‘EM ‘ELL BOYS “ Those letter Ls again and I decided to dedicate my 2019 Festival Yankee to both Laurence and the ‘clever’ doctor once I noticed that my big four this year are all out of Laurence’s top drawer!

The ‘clever’ doctor is the same ‘clever’ doctor who one year backed the favs at Cheltenham Festival pyramid style. That’s backing the first fav to win £100 and then when it loses, staking on the second fav to win the £100 plus the stake lost on the first fav and so on through the card on all four days (as it was then).Also called the chasing losses system and the most dangerous fallacy in the betting world. The ‘clever’ doctor believed Cheltenham was the creme de la creme of jumps horse racing and seeing as all the country’s great racing minds were working on it, you could guarantee that the free market would therefore display the winner of each race before it was run as the most backed and thus the market favourite in each race.

“ Don’t be daft “ said his mate. “ Everyone knows favourites get beat “  “Yes” replied the clever doctor “ but not all of them. One of them has to win at a meeting like this.”

He chose the year not a single favourite came in (as you are sure to do following systems like that) and spent the rest of his medical career paying his bookmaker back.Still shy of a few hundred grand when he passed away so the story goes.

The cautionary tale of all cautionary betting tales and always one to remind yourself of as the big week approaches. There is of course a soft spot in Cheltenham Lore on both sides of the fence for the doctor both for the stupidity of his sticking to the system, in the belief that it had to come right in the end, and also for the consistency with which he carried on knowing as he must that he was risking all by the end. He always regretted what he did but he also stood by his actions and never attempted any kind of welch. The bookmakers always had respect for him over the years after – when he still attended the meeting and raised his chant (but was wearing handcuffs that buried his hands deep in his pockets. His wife had swallowed the key so the story goes).

And my Cheltenham Yankee for 2019 and my attempt at “ giving the bookmakers ‘ell” genuinely has four horses in all beginning with letter L.

The Boz’s Traditional Yankee for the 2019 Cheltenham Festival

Le Richebourg – 100/30 for the Arkle

La Bague Au Roi – 12/1 for the RSA

Lady Buttons – 20/1 for the OLBG – 40/1 for the Queen Mother

Lostintranslation – 5/1 for the JLT

Stake:0.25pt Each Way = 22 bets. Outlay: 5.5 points

Sub:

Tiger Roll – 5/4 for the Glenfarclass Cross Country

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Is that an omen or what? My rationale is as follows:

Le Richebourg only came on to my radar recently in winning the Irish Arkle and sat on my subs bench for a while as the second best jumper currently in training.Improved from early December I’d say when I saw him chinned by Delta Work who was on my subs bench for that and remains there as hasn’t really been seen much since and sidestepped the chance to take on La Bague au Roi in the New Year. I always like a neat and tidy jumper in my banker position on the bet and Joseph O’Brien’s six year old is just that – aswell as a concerted effort by the Boz to have an Irish banker on board this year. The win at Leopardstown did ooze class and although a Cheltenham virgin (didn’t jump great there in 2018) his improvement this season has me comparing his jumping now to that of Sprinter Sacre and Coneygree. Don’t see the Cheltenham fences will trouble him this year and is already scaring away a lot of the entered opposition.Only made it on my bet late following the disappointment that was Waiting Patiently’s defeat in the Betfair Chase. I’ve been a total advocate of the Jefferson superstar but was dismayed to see a 17 length thrashing at Ascot and only slightly appeased by the knowledge that Cyrname broke the course record in so doing. Cyrname obviously good but I thought WP let him go and always had my doubts about the Northern raider as a Cheltenham banker anyways simply because of the stated stable aversion to the track and the fact that he is untried there. If he wins the Ryanair I’ll be spitting but I have two others in that race anyways so in a way the defeat at Ascot clarified my thoughts about the banker spot and brought the last leg of the ‘Give ‘Em ‘Ell’ yankee into place.

La Bague au Roi has been on my yankee before but has been a loser with a tendency to run below best at the course. That front running style isn’t always ideal at Cheltenham. I’m prepared to forgive her last year though as it was more the heavy ground and the blunder at the last that kept her out of the frame I’d say and her jumping of fences rather than the helter skelter of hurdles suggests this is her year for coming into her Championship own. Her unbeaten run as a chaser has been top drawer and although she has been getting the mare’s allowance to help her, that ain’t why she is undefeated. Beat Lostintranslation on debut fair and square and holds two other main RSA dangers – Santini and Topofthegame – on that Kempton win that earned her the quote I began with from the equestrian Legend that is Dorian Williams.

Battling tough. That quality stands her in good stead for the front running style here and she may need all her guts to get home but at 12/1 as I write for the RSA she is my festival next best worth taking now. She is also entered in the JLT where she might meet my fourth candidate. More on that later. For now, prepare for the Ring King (I always thought it was a Tolkein reference as ring OF THE king but my internet French translator assures me not!) to be the second L in the winner’s enclosure.

Lady Buttons is my third leg and my new favourite horse in training. She also deserves the Williams quote as a mare who is blessed with grit as displayed in the defeat of Indefatigable and Irish Roe LTO at Doncaster – giving weight and hanging on grimly to the line. Has the luxury of choice between the OLBG and the Queen Mother – hurdles or chase – and I’m hoping she takes on Altior just for the spectacle of it. She travels like him as a chaser and is blessed with speed. Trainer Phil Kirby only has a flat horse – Stargazer – who can keep up with her on the gallops and the manner of her wins and her rides has been the highlight of my season so far. She is a dark horse of course – whether she takes on Altior or the Irish glut in the OLBG – and my each way element this year. A serious feather in the cap for the North if she can win. Here’s one ‘notsoclever’ doctor who will be roaring her home.Nobody’s idea of a favourite.No Cheltenham pedigree again. Doesn’t worry me a jot! She is all heart and if she’s in contention up the hill, you can be sure you’ll get your 110%!

Lostintranslation is my fourth and final leg although may need to be dutched with La Bague Au Roi if they run in the same race in which case, the sub comes in on leg 4.

Held by La Bague Au Roi and Defi Du Seuil (at level weights) but Tizzard’s new ‘excitement’ is a proven Cheltenham hill horse. Put him in contention over the last and watch his action carry him past allcomers up the hill. That flat stride head down feature of the old fashioned chaser. What a joy to behold!

Defi Du Seuil understandably heads him in the market after revenging the Cheltenham defeat at levels under a masterclass Geraghty ride. Mick Fitzgerald’s terrier horse however still looked vulnerable to the Lostintranslation surge up the Sandown hill (which is not the Cheltenham hill) and I’m happy for LIT to reverse the reversal again when we get back to the Gloucestershire track. Didn’t jump the Sandown fences great (all three Railways caught him out as they do) and was far from perfect at Cheltenham also. At Newbury, as he tried to turn form on La Bague, he birched the second last. None of which puts me off.

A Cheltenham horse. You saw that very glint in the Tizzard eye. A warrior for whom fences are an intrusion more than an obstacle to be cleared. Make a mistake. Regroup and carry on. All heart. Made for the big day. And that flat, head down stride up the hill if he’s close enough will make him initial L winner number 4!!

Here’s hoping.

The subs bench horse, should he be needed in the case of defection of any of the above, is the redoubtable Tiger Roll to defend his Cross Country crown. Any horse who can win a Triumph hurdle and a Grand National, and a stunning renewal of the Boyne hurdle last week at 25/1,will find a few banks and ditches and fences with leafy twigs on like a walk in the park. He doesn’t begin with L but he does have two LLs at the end to give the bookies more trouble. If it must be another L horse, keep an eye on Lalor. Was on the list as my Cheltenham horse before Dynamite Dollars trounced at Sandown and has to face Le Richebourg now in the Arkle so is only really sub for that race if Le Richebourg should defect.

With female horses prevalent on my bet, I’m in the camp shouting for a female rider to win the Gold Cup for the first time should Frodon’s camp bend to shouts for him to try his luck. Big ask I think but there is no horse/rider partnership this season that has inspired more than that one. They do bring the very best out in each other and that’s a potent combination. I don’t rule it out. They tell me the Ryanair is more likely but as already mentioned, I have three for that race already so will be staying out!

Then there’s my view on the Champion hurdle, being the one who got Buveur D’air beat against all odds on Boxing Day. My bet there is totally ground dependant. Turns up soft and the 2/1 on Henderson’s fav is giving us money.Quick, tell the clever doctor! There’s a fav who won’t get beat on soft ground. Bet for the day though. If it ain’t soft, well, there’s an Irish Mare who’s quite good and begins with L!!!!

Have a fabulous festival and whatever you do, don’t lose your shirt. Give them bookmakers ‘Ell !!

Gary ‘The Boz’ Boswell

STOP PRESS: Le Richebourg just announced injured and out for rest of season. My car blew up yesterday aswell! Not having a good few days. As per above, you now decide on whether to bring in Lalor to keep the Laurence Lewis theme, gamble on Laurina in the Champion Hurdle or simply insert the organised Irish banker sub Tiger Roll which is I think my preferred Option. Here’s hoping fortunes improve in time for the 12th!

They didn’t and La Bague au Roi was withdrawn two days later – the perils of picking ante-post. My revised Yankee is thus:

The Boz’s Traditional Yankee for the 2019 Cheltenham Festival

Tiger Roll – 11/10 for the Cross Country Chase

Lalor – 4/1 for the Arkle

Lady Buttons – 18/1 for the OLBG – 33/1 for the Queen Mother

Lostintranslation – 3/1 for the JLT

Stake:0.1pt WIN = 11 bets. Outlay: 1.1 points

In view of the defections and because of our bank status, I have downgraded the bet stake for the BLWM and also made it win only now given the price of the new banker Tiger Roll.Lady Buttons remains the dark horse and Lostintranlation the one I’m actually sweetest on.

Cheltenham simply wouldn’t be Cheltenham without my traditional yankee which retains the description of the best four horses I’ve watched running this year that are entered and have a believable chance of coming up that Gloucestershire hill in front!

More Cheltenham blogging on the morrow………….

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.1875 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for  The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for Musselburgh (Mar 10) & OLBG (Mar 12)

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black Entered for Naas (Mar 10)

All Currencies Entered for Warwick (Mar 10)

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Taunton (Mar 11)

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

Tombstone – Entered for Coral Cup (Mar 13) & County Hurdle (Mar 15)

TO FOLLOW BET on FRIDAY:

3-05 SANDOWN – PISTOL WHIPPED @ 2/1 or better – LOST

Pulled and scratched from list. Never travelling.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of the breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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