BOZmail – March 8th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY MARCH 8th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-10 LINGFIELD

Got that one wrong – especially with Instingtive beating Molly Carew! –  but low risk as stated and my conglomerate lay price was 1.78. I got some of the 1.62 that was around late and you’ll have scored better than me today if you waited til late to bet once you saw the run on Dominateur or indeed if you took Betfair SP. The way it goes. I thought in running that Chambard might defy the gamble but the market did know best and he never quite got to the winner’s girth.

There was a play on Iwasthefutureonce as a 50/1 back on the off and a 20/1 lay in running as he went from the front but not an easy one to predict in advance. Bottom line, a profit protection day for me as it turned out. Draw a line and move on to see if I can’t find a better one for Friday!

I watched what my Dad would have called the dogmeat racing at boycotted Southwell on Thursday where only two of seven short priced favs could win. Tough stuff in NH racing on Friday so I desert to the boycot stricken all weather at Lingfield for Friday where Divine Messenger is up at 4/5 on the tissue coming down into this grade of handicap.

Has the top AW jock on board but is worth taking on small with Choral Music who is much more the Lingfield horse and has the box draw here and may just get away on the lead. Majestic Moon also has a chance on ratings but like the fav is not really noted as a Lingfield sort.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DIVINE MESSENGER (around 1.76 and no greater than 2.0)

0.15pt BACK on CHORAL MUSIC

This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 59/83 = 71.08% :   BACKS: 13/53 = 24.52%

*******************************************************************

NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.3875 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  – Entered for Ayr (Mar 9)

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for  The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo –  Entered for Ayr (Mar 9)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for Musselburgh (Mar 10) & OLBG (Mar 12)

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black Entered for Naas (Mar 10)

All Currencies Entered for Warwick (Mar 10)

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Taunton (Mar 11)

Pistol Whipped – Entered for Plumpton (Mar 11)

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

Tombstone – Entered for Coral Cup (Mar 13) & County Hurdle (Mar 15)

TO FOLLOW BET on FRIDAY:

3-05 SANDOWN – PISTOL WHIPPED @ 2/1 or better – 0.2pt WIN

Short price on handicap debut because of trainer so not one to go daft over. Did look the sort to improve further though and worth a follow til it gets beat.

****************************************************************

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

***********************************************************

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of the breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *