BOZmail – March 6th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 6th 2019

THE BOZMAIL IN IRELAND

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-10 FONTWELL

First, for those kind enough to be sending me their scores at the moment, a bit more about the options you get and the decisions you can make when you are following LIM on a daily basis. Field Exhibition was obviously an incorrect call from me pricewise when I put up last night as my lay of the day. Was 5/2 on the initial tissue and I calculated a safe lay at anything 4.0 or under as published and you had to be quick to get on at that. £173 matched on Betfair before the price started zooming and if you were one of those who got on quick you had the option to create arbitrage this morning and bet back at around 7/1 – its price throughout much of the pre-race trading. Turned out to be a race the market gave chance to all six runners which in a way is a good LIM to play and trade on so long as you trust your race-reader (i.e me) or even if you don’t and do your own. I assessed Smarty Wild the fav as likely winner and was always not keen on Field Exhibition courtesy of stable form. So I had option to arbitrage my lay of 3.75 but it was an option I never took. Further form study on the morning of the race as I saw the drift confirmed him as a likely loser. Stable so out of form. He led early giving another chance to lay (but never under 4.0 – 5.2 the best I saw) and more chance to bet back & arbitrage in case he won. I personally resisted that based on the way he was travelling. If you went for it, your score behind mine on the day but some will definitely be ahead again. Those who watched the way the market developed and took my assertion that the fav was the most likely winner. As low as 10/11 yesterday but as huge as 5/2 on the off and 5/1 in running as he hung around out the back. Take a position on him yesterday and arb today and you made more than I did sticking to my Field Exhibition lay and more than those who arbed the Field Exhibition position. And that is just a basic expose of the options you had on the race if you had time in the 20 hours between me posting and the race being run and if you are also able to be placed to trade your position in running based on what you see. If you don’t have that time or opportunity, you have to accept that your chance of making excellent profits on LIM are more limited. It is a system that favours those with time as well as money to invest. The decisions are there for you. Your score will be affected by the decisions you make. That will be reflected in what I post from hereon in. I can assure you that if you ain’t doing so well so far, it is just a case of more practice. Or accepting that your scores won’t be optimum if you don’t have time to invest (you could still make a profit though as those around in December will attest). It has been harder in the weeks and months since but will turn round again. It is a long term system and the most important thing is that you keep the importance of breaking even as a philosophy and concept in the viewing mirror at all times.

Well done to those who took my hint to always trade on To Follow runners. Unwin VC did you proud today. Plenty of 14/1 on offer early and down to 7/2 on the off. How to get paid out well on a loser!

Fontwell on Wednesday is subject to the boycott currently going on making all its runners LIM qualifiers! I have chosen the first race as the LIM play.Edgar looks at first sight a fav to back on ratings but he is a LTO winner with a penalty to carry, isn’t at his best on soft, from a stable out of form in last 14 days (0% of horses running to form in recent races) and also has a slight weight turnaround with Kahdian for LTO (arguably negated by jockey bookings although the booking of Noonan actually greatly increases Kahdian’s chance of turning the form in my book). So not a great fav unless you agree with the tissue compiler that he’s 6/4 because he ain’t up against much. That is true but all four do have a case you can make for them if it is their day and it is old Bredon Hill Lad for me whose course and distance form gives hope (Edgar came 26 lengths last on his only effort at the idiosyncratic track). Likes the ground and trainer in good nick. Very much on a winning mark if age has not yet caught up. Value at any rate in another what I would consider anyone’s race. No 6/4 Edgar in my book and so I think price might drift again in morning so get on now.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on EDGAR (around 2.5 but not greater than 3.3)

0.15pt BACK on BREDON HILL LAD

This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 58/81 = 71.60% :   BACKS: 12/52 = 23.07%

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.3875 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for the Ultima (Mar 12) & The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Taunton (Mar 11)

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

Tombstone

TO FOLLOW HORSES ON TUESDAY:

2-45 EXETER – UNWIN VC – 0.1pt WIN @ 9/1 or better – 2nd

5-15 EXETER – PARLOUR MAID – 0.25pt WIN @ 9/4 or better – 5th

Unwin VC very unlucky. Backed all the way from 14/1 early down to 7/2 SP meaning stable confidence observation was correct. So was assertion that he will win one soon. Does seem to like Exeter especially. Foiled also by the red hot form of the Nicholls yard. Those doubtful about him doing well at Cheltenham should look again in my view. I expect him to return to his old status this year. Parlour Maid’s penalty was a stopper after all and can be omitted from list for time being as that will take some working off. Actually ran well enough to boost The Mighty Ash form for Taunton next Monday however.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet.)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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