BOZmail – March 5th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY MARCH 5th 2019

THE BOZMAIL IN IRELAND

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

2-15 EXETER

Well I got to sunny Leopardstown but it welcomed me with a loser and an Elliot pointer I’d come to watch that fell over. So not a great day. Tombstone might be as good a dark horse as I get.

Been a bit upset of late by two or three of you reporting February losses and the arbiter’s adherance to Betfair Sps also troubling me. The 5.06 return on Defi Du Seuil on February 2nd was not ok on a horse I put up as a 3.25 LAY with an upper parameter of 4.0 and is the root cause of why some of you didn’t prosper last month as I failed in assuming that 5.06 wouldn’t be taken.My staking advices in late Feb were thus undercooked. And because the Betfair SP on Tombstone yesterday was 1.46 as a back when Industry SP was 1.9 and the bet was easily obtainable at 2.0+ on the exchanges. I laid Defi Du Seuil at 3.1 myself and backed Tombstone at 2.06. There are other examples from the study I’ve done of those who kindly sent their records in and so I have now declared that Betfair SPs are not recommended. Don’t take or rely on them. They are as bad on market fancied horses these days as Industry SPs and worse on occasion as these two show. And not a good tool for getting your lays matched. Recommended practice is securing your price – within the published parameters – at time of bet placing. Best not to get caught relying on Betfair SPs again. I shall remove the bank stats above and will instead publish daily my own achieved prices and bank from herein for you to compare with. Some will certainly do better than me as it is not my greatest forte.

Those doing considerably worse as happened last month can email in for tips and advice along the way. If in doubt, don’t bet. Don’t be suckered into taking a 5.06 type lay price about a Defi Du Seuil or a 1.46 back price about a Tombstone in a small field race. Betfair the bookmaker was having a laugh!

And back into England for Tuesday with just a small play on LIM and a couple of to follow horses to enjoy. This race sees the top two – Smarty Wild and Field Exhibition – having a case for winning and a penalty to carry. Field Exhibition is my lay with a stable out of form and a horse requiring a stamina rather than a speed test. The fav has much stronger claims and Midnight Midge and Karakoram provide mid range price LIM cover as improvers with possibilities getting significant weight allowance.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on FIELD EXHIBITION (around 3.5 and no more than 4.0)

This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 57/80 = 71.25% :   BACKS: 12/52 = 23.07%

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.7375 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for the Ultima (Mar 12) & The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Parlour Maid

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Fontwell (Mar 6)

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

Tombstone

TO FOLLOW HORSES ON TUESDAY:

2-45 EXETER – UNWIN VC – 0.1pt WIN @ 9/1 or better

5-15 EXETER – PARLOUR MAID – 0.25pt WIN @ 9/4 or better

Unwin VC back at the track he likes and is improving sort learning the game and sure to win sometime soon. Would have liked to see stable in better form but an each way chance for sure. Has been backed early to win suggesting some stable confidence so fingers are crossed here. Parlour Maid carries a double penalty which ain’t normally my thing but attitude of both wins excellent and form from LTO has been franked so we stay with until it gets beat. Keep an eye on form for The Mighty Ash’s possible run at Fontwell on Wednesday.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet..)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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