BOZmail – MARCH 21st

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MARCH 21st 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

5-25 SEDGEFIELD

I’ve been writing and rewriting my SP piece today (and will reproduce on here when it finally gets past the editor) and have steam coming out of my ears about how one needs to keep one’s eye on those pesky bookmakers every minute of every day. When I wrote the LIM race read last night, Thyne for Gold was a declared non-runner and thus my stake figures were all calculated to a five runner race! Fortunately one I’ll let them off on as didn’t make a huge difference to result or way race went as we continue on our winning way. Uno Valoroso rather than Brave Spartacus being the old boy who ran well. Looks like his turn will be coming soon. Gets on the trade NTO list.

I came within a whisker of nominating Ballywood as our first lay for the staggered acca tomorrow but came down in the end on good value rather than weapons grade. We’ll see whether I nailed it or bottled it tomorrow!That last time out form behind Dynamite Dollars stayed my hand.

I’d already designated Djin Conti as my LIM lay. Whilst he has the positive of being turned out again within the week on his side – that is usually a good pointer to stable confidence – that influences his odds on status and there is a couple of reasons to take that on. Carries the penalty for that LTO win achieved at Southwell where you’ll know I consider that form doesn’t always travel that well. Stopper weight of 12-5 and jockey Gavin Sheehan chooses to go to Ludlow for two rides for same owners. Good sub jockey but that an indication perhaps to counteract the stable confidence pointer.

Then there’s opposition in tight with him to extent he comes out poorly on ratings having to give so much weight. A stone and 5lb to Late Date who likes to front run which suits Sedgefield and he won here fending off our Socksy not long ago you may remember. Fly Rory fly has some decent Irish form behind Rathvinden and also won well LTO and is pretty closely matched with the fav but getting 8lbs. Speed figures don’t favour the fav and extended distance may also not be ideal.

Plenty to suggest he may well get beat.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DJIN CONTI (around 1.8: no greater than 2.4)

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 68/96 = 70.83% :   BACKS: 16/62 = 25.8%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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