BOZmail – MARCH 19th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY MARCH 19th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

3-40 HUNTINGDON

Good week continues and a fair few to choose from to make it a big seven days but I’ve ended up with this fairly tight one and no clear idea of a back. So it’s consolidation time and wait for a clearer one to have a go at again like we did on Monday.

I’m clear about the lay for this handicap hurdle and that’s Dyliev of Caroline Bailey’s who is a stable out of form – as pretty much all of these are – and is the one with the step up in class and a penalty to overcome with no guarantee of handling the rain softened ground.

Both Capone and Red Mix have better times at this distance and Capone sports the soon to retire Noel Fehily and there’ll be a fair bit of cap doffing to this classy gent by his colleagues. Capone also has decent form behind Quel Destin who was well backed and led in the Triumph and comes back down in class here and will likely start a short fav. As I write, Dyliev and Capone are joint favs and Red Mix certainly cannot be ruled out so looking at getting on again early here as a drift on Dyliev is likely. Of the two outsiders, I wouldn’t omit Final Choice from the value bet honour although he seems to win on heavy these days and might not be quite bad enough ground wise to accommodate him. So lay day only.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DYLIEV (around 3.0 and no greater than 3.8)

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 66/94 = 70.21% :   BACKS: 16/61 = 26.22%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

No new additions/deletions.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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