BOZmail – MARCH 18th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY MARCH 18th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-30 SOUTHWELL

The visit to Ireland paid for yesterday with Moyhenna one of the horses I was told to take a look at and expect better of. Dennis Hogan is a trainer/rider to add to your lists if you ain’t aware of him.Good.

I worked the sub par form of the Elliot stable out for myself and will look to make some more hay out of that in the coming days. Redhotfillypeppers can I think finally be confined to the ranks of never going to quite make a Mullins stable star.

On to Monday with LIM in rude health at last and only four horses in this handicap chase at Southwell but a race I’m very keen on with the fav a false odds on shot to my eyes and one to take on at the tissue of 4/5. Be sure to get in early at that with at least 50% of your stake. I would expect him to drift rather than shorten with what I’m about to tell you so you won’t be complaining I don’t think with getting all stake down early on this one.

I’ve taken a look at the ATR archive footage of his LTO win (always a good part of your raceread research if and when you have time) and formed the strong opinion that Diese Vu is quite possibly carrying a penalty for a race he wouldn’t have won but for the last flight fall of favourite Cybalko. Always conjecture of course but the fav looked to be going with the greater zest to me. There are other negatives about the fav. Isn’t going to like the forecast soft ground based on past form and takes on Skelton’s Savello from that LTO race on arguably 15lb worse terms for an 18 length beating if you take into consideration the jockey claim LTO. Add to that the fact that Harry Skelton is on board Savello this time to give extra zest to another of the old guard of handicap chasers who is 13 years old now but is fantastically well handicapped on old form, will be ok with the ground and would also have been closer than 18 lengths last time but for a hefty belt given to the third last fence. Stayed on well to the line.

So Savello looks a worthy back but we have some serious cover for the lay aswell with Broughtons Rhythm on a mark he can win from for the bang in form Oliver Sherwood yard as a hurdler who likes this ground and is inching gradually and positively toward his first chase success. There is also Deadly Approach on a near enough winning mark taking a drop in class and getting the 7lb claim of one of the best young conditionals currently on the scene thus receiving 11lb from the false fav.

All in all, an LIM to have a right go at in current form.

Recommendation:

0.55pt LAY on DIESE VU (around 1.8 and no greater than 2.4)

0.2pt BACK on SAVELLO

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 65/93 = 69.89% :   BACKS: 15/60 = 25%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

No new additions/deletions.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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