BOZmail – MARCH 17th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY MARCH 17th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

4-15 LIMERICK

Right idea but wrong horse on Saturday as old boy Finnegan’s Garden rolled back the years after concerted support to thwart Le Coeur Net who was perhaps a touch unlucky. Mental note not to oppose this one again NTO. We’ve had our business out of him! Market was the clue to which old boy to support (as it was with Bredon Hill last time here).Yourholidayisover ran a creditable 3rd without ever looking a likely winner. Might give him another go if the right race comes up. Needs luck but looks in its best shape at the moment to win at big odds.

Over the Irish sea for one on Sunday and this is going out before our trade race has run because The Boz is at a 60th birthday bash tonight. Likely to be a late return!

This race caught my eye because Redhotfillypeppers has been a to follow horse since her bumper days and did look to have the early makings of a top class Mullins recruit. Chasing will be last chance of that now but made a nice intro and under Gold Cup winning jockey and trainer combo (sure to be still full of that achievement) can give the Elliot hotpot a scare or two here. Missy Tata has the better hurdles form but was being strongly challenged by Moyhenna on its chase debut when that one fell and gifted the race after being strongly supported in the market. Hogan’s horse has fallen again since so is hardly a safe conveyance but at 6/1 is undoubtedly the value if it can stand up and on a line through Grey Waters and Camelia du Cotte would appear to have the potential beating of Missy Tata. Add in the negative of Elliot’s string not over performing at Chelthenham (only 44% of horses running to form) and Missy Tata is definitely worth opposing at around 5/4 to pay for a back on the other two who are difficult to choose between.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on MISSY TATA (around 2.3 and no greater than 2.6)

0.1pt BACK on REDHOTFILLYPEPPERS

0.1pt BACK on MOYHENNA

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 64/92 = 69.56% :   BACKS: 14/59 = 23.72%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Saturday’s running trades:

3-45 NEWCASTLE – Ask Paddington – NON RUNNER

4-55 NEWCASTLE – Rainy Day Dylan

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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