BOZmail – MARCH 15th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY MARCH 15th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

3-15 FAKENHAM

My last attempt at taking advantage of all eyes being on Cheltenham and I usually like to have a go at the race before the Gold Cup runs as all focus is on the build up there. Old Chase warriors having their day has been the source of the LIM success this month with Bredon Hill Lad and The Jugopolist doing the business and I did look long and hard at Henryville here because on his day, he’d munch these. Pretty regressive of late and not much joy for the Bowen yard either at present whilst James is booked to ride the fav and whilst that might be a deflector (so if money comes for Henryville take note), the general signs for Henryville are negative so I pass on the opportunity and rely on three live chances to beat the fav instead in Set List,Ballykan and Midnight Shot. All from big stables and on their marks with only Midnight Shot’s stable form and penalty putting me off him slightly. The other two look to have the class to expose the Williams horse who has been running well in this class without being able to win and still effectively shoulders his penalty and getting weight from all is arguably a class behind and therefore will do well to win. Not my idea of a 13/8 fav.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on SIDEWAYS (around 2.8 and no greater than 3.2)

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 63/90 = 70% : BACKS: 14/58 = 24.13%

THE BOZ’s CHELTENHAM BLOG – DAY SEVEN:

My list of To Follow entries is as follows:

Day one:

Itchy Feet -33/1 for the Supreme Novices – 0.1pt WIN

(3rd – Good start for traders and each way backers! I backed 0.1pt @ 42.0 and traded back in running as he jumped the last into 2nd place – 0.4pt @ 6.0)

Lady Buttons- 11/1 for the OLBG – 0.1pt WIN

(4th – No profit here but ran an honourable race in moving through the field into fifth allowing a hedge out. I took it given how well Ruby was going! Just goes to show.

0.1pt @16.5 – 0.1pt LAY @ 11.0. Break Even.)

Indian Opera – NON RUNNER

Knocknanuss – 16/1 for the Arkle – 0.05pt WIN

(Another triumph for trading. Backed 0.05pt@75.0 and because he had his spell in the lead while fancied horses fell, traded back 0.1pt @ 25.0)

Day two:

Lady Buttons – NON RUNNER

Tombstone – NON RUNNER

Day three:

Frodon – 13/2 for the RYANAIR – 0.1pt WIN

(How did you get on with your trade? As I predicted, it was pretty good practice especially in bullish and confident mood as I was after The Jugo yesterday.I had my 0.1pt @ 6.8 but when Aso came to him at the last I asked for and got 0.1pt @ 9.6. Then I roared my brains out!! Was pretty sure he’d run up the hill based on previous and with Nicholls in such form but I had posted 1pt LAY@1.2 just in case – because Aso was running a mighty race too – which I didn’t manage to cancel. Net profit = +1.24 pts)

Vinndication – 9/1 for the JLT – 0.1pt WIN

(Unplaced – Backed 0.1pt@ 10.0 : 0.1pt@6.2 = Break even)

Lostintranslation – 7/2 for the JLT – 0.1pt WIN

(2nd – Backed 0.1pt @ 5.0 : Hedged 0.5pt @ 1.2 = +0.4pt)

Day Four  Review:

I am still suffering the regret of not having Frodon in my yankee and I was wrong about Defi and Lostintranslation so  a loss suffered with the fixed odds again made up by some decent trading. You see why I switched to trading the To follows in June last year and I hereby announce that will be my last year of the Festival yankee which has been a tradition of the past 30 years but has not fared well in past few years. Time has moved on. My first year of exclusively trading Cheltenham Festival (with the exception of the acca and yankee attempts) and not surprisingly a much better way to go I have decided. You still get to have your winner when you’re bullish – as Frodon proved – and win also when you go close as Lostintranslation proved. And the lesser fancies have been undamaging break evens so far. Must be the way  to go. Is for me anyways.

Just the Gold Cup left for me now with Elegant Escape only a small fancy and a play – like Vinndication – to hedge as soon as I get offered preferential odds. I actually think it a very open Gold Cup which Presenting Percy could coast in if he runs like he did last year. Clan Des Obeux gets my shout as Paul Nicholls still has a small chance of top trainer but I won’t back at that price. A watching day only for the most part. Just that small trade on EE. Hasn’t been a vintage year but Itchy Feet and Frodon were exciting highlights and hasn’t proved an unprofitable year thanks to trading.

A BLWM & BOZMail year most certainly with the real excitement going on where no-one was looking!  

Day four:

Elegant Escape – 14/1 for the Gold Cup – 0.1pt WIN

Tombstone – NON RUNNER

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0775 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet

Frodon

Ask Paddington – Entered for Newcastle (Mar 16)

Lady Buttons

Ribble Valley

La Bague au Roi

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Elegant Escape – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Knocknanuss

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Exeter (Mar 18)

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan – Entered for Newcastle (Mar 16)

Tombstone – Entered for Kempton (Mar 16)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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