BOZmail – March 13th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY MARCH 13th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

5-05 HUNTINGDON

A stinky day for me traditional betting wise and those who weren’t quick on the LIM price last night will have seriously outscored me today. As for Buveur who was upsides crossing the line in the Champion but forgot to have a jockey on board!

Second big race cert to come an unexpected cropper for the staggered acca following Waiting Patiently in the King George. Day saved only by trading on the to follows with Itchy Feet in particular doing us proud. You have to jump at Cheltenham!

Battered and bruised I take it easy on Wednesday with Storm Gareth threatening to thwart the racing anyways and my two projected to follows not running. Not got a lot of LIM confidence left either after yesterday but I do love The Jugopolist and I’ll happily watch him try to win rather than back Altior who will probably also fall tomorrow if today has been anything to go by.

Coopers Square looks like going odds on at Huntingdon but has a ten pound penalty to carry and I prefer the wind opped Arthur’s Reuben for Jennie Candish whose has come into the winners the past fortnight.

And just a loyalty bet on the Jugopolist at 50/1 and bigger. He still runs one every now and then and is on a mark so to do. Qualifies therefore as a BOZmail golden rule Number one again and is the value of the century if he still does possess what it takes.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on COOPERS SQUARE (around 2.0)

0.1pt BACK on THE JUGOPOLIST

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 61/88 = 69.31% :   BACKS: 13/57 = 22.80%

THE BOZ’s CHELTENHAM BLOG – DAY FOUR:

My list of To Follow entries then is as follows:

Day one:

Itchy Feet -33/1 for the Supreme Novices – 0.1pt WIN

(3rd – Good start for traders and each way backers! I backed 0.1pt @ 42.0 and traded back in running as he jumped the last into 2nd place – 0.4pt @ 6.0)

Lady Buttons- 11/1 for the OLBG – 0.1pt WIN

(4th – No profit here but ran an honourable race in moving through the field into fifth allowing a hedge out. I took it given how well Ruby was going! Just goes to show. 0.1pt @16.5 – 0.1pt LAY @ 11.0. Break Even.)

Indian Opera – NON RUNNER

Knocknanuss – 16/1 for the Arkle – 0.05pt WIN

(Another triumph for trading. Backed 0.05pt@75.0 and because he had his spell in the lead while fancied horses fell, traded back 0.1pt @ 25.0)

Day Two Review:

Keeping it short and sweet today. Did you note that the benefactor of the Buveur fall was Gavin Cromwell – he of the Stratford gamble yesterday? Such is racing. Espoir was impressive and at least I got the fact that Apples Jade wouldn’t fire right. Left with the feeling that Buveur only had to stand up to win though. Again! Hey ho.

Rachel Blackmore in the joint lead for the jockeys title so that was a positive on the day. Had a nibble at that 100/1 I mentioned yesterday.Will probably trade that if she bags another one tomorrow.I’ve had a look at her rides.Star Max looks her best chance.

I’ll probably keep my betting to an Altior/Tiger Roll double to see if my luck does return. Both are nailed on which means not a jot at Cheltenham as we know. Benie was totally nailed on coming to the last in the Mares race today!!

Roll on Thursday and Friday. My other four fancies for the week including my best bet Lostintranslation still to come.

Day two:

Lady Buttons – NON RUNNER

Tombstone – NON RUNNER

Day three:

Frodon

Benatar

Lostintranslation

Day four:

Frodon

Elegant Escape

Tombstone

More Cheltenham blogging on the morrow………….

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons

Ribble Valley

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for  The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Knocknanuss

The Mighty Ash

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

Tombstone – Entered for County Hurdle (Mar 15) & Kempton (Mar 16)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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