BOZmail – MARCH 12th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY MARCH 12th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

5-10 SEDGEFIELD

Chance to practice your staggered staking again Monday as Myplaceatmidnight was smashed off the boards by stable money. I missed that he was a late re-entry after final decs which was a sort of clue but no mistaking the ride he got. I ain’t messing when I’ve been saying what I’ve been saying for years now about Bryony Frost. She is in the business of changing the sport and alongside Rachel Blackmore (who is 100/1 for top jockey at Cheltenham by the way) I truly think we are out of the macho world of jump jockeys and brute strength as epitomised in the McCoy,Walsh,Geraghty years. We are back into the Francombe,Dunwoody era  of sensitive hands and artistry in the saddle. Not that Frost and Blackmore ain’t strong mind. The Serenas of the racing world the pair of them. But stylish and sensitive with it. The world is seriously their oyster says I and won’t that change the world of horse racing? Bout blooming time.

So I got 1.72 for my lay when I could have had plenty of 1.6 if I’d waited. Conversely I got some 11.0 for my back which would have been some nice Cheltenham moolah if the fav had wilted (only way he was gonna lose as the ground dried too much for Alrightjack) but damage limitation day when you’re on one like that. No excuses. They happen.What did I learn? To take on Ms Frost even less in future. She gives a seriously good front running ride now. And Frodon, despite doubts about him on the formbook, has a real chance at Cheltenham now say I. She really is coming on leaps and bounds and ready to strut at Cheltenham this year in one way or another.

The good news about Monday was that my other lay possible for Monday was Mcquus in the second at Plumpton. That drifted like a bargepole but won doing handsprings. So we lost. But we saved some money. Always look on the bright side of life. I actually came out with profit anyway from my days trades cos I lost on the LIM but I profited nicely on the Irish tradition at Stratford theory with Lever Du Soleil duly trouncing the Nicholls hotpot in the first. The profit was in the laying because Lever didn’t win. Subtler these days the Irish. The winning was left to a Fergal O’Brien horse (would he have Irish connections by any chance?) and the pot was created in the laying of the English Odds on shot. Like I keep repeating. Its about trading these days if you wanna get ahead.

And so to Day one of the Festival and my blog below, the latest leg of our staggered acca and the never to be forgotten LIM golden rule – Look where others do not. For the LIM I go to Sedgefield. Rarely do I play in bumpers but I always keep an eye on them because of my stats that show a regular occurrence of unexpected 4 year olds winning at whopping prices because they are carrying a wedge less weight. 8lbs in this instance. No form to go on so I won’t bother trying to justify why I’m betting on Naughty Nancie who is 33/1 on the tissue but should be a load longer on the exchanges. In a five runner race. We saw what can happen earlier this week. There is an argument that you always just play the prices in horse race betting and ignore the form. I don’t go that far but I do understand the claim. No difficulty ignoring Naughty Nancie’s form because she has none! Four year old getting weight on herdebut. Not unlike Lady Lucca at Warwick. We just don’t know how she’ll perform.

But four year olds do win these races on the back of their weight allowance and that’s enough to consider it when the price is this big. They don’t come into LIM often because they don’t run under six runners often. This one is the chosen race because there is also a straight choice at the top of the betting. The only two with a chance according to the market. PTP times point to Theflickeringlight but better for me is that Philip Kirby trained the winner of Takingitallin’s rules debut so will know exactly what he has to beat. And it’s Philip Kirby. Trainer of Lady Buttons and more infamously for us, trainer of Niven. He knows how to get Irish horses to win for him first time out!

And it’s first day of Cheltenham week. How many others will be looking at this race?

Takingitallin is a very layable 5/4 on the tissue. To pay for a swing at Naughty Nancie who only has four rivals to beat. Unlike any fancied horses at Chelters!

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on TAKINGITALLIN (around 2.3 and no greater than 3.0)

0.1pt BACK on NAUGHTY NANCIE

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 61/87 = 70.11% :   BACKS: 13/56 = 23.21%

THE BOZ’s CHELTENHAM BLOG – DAY THREE:

My list of To Follow entries then is as follows:

Day one:

Itchy Feet -33/1 for the Supreme Novices – 0.1pt WIN

Lady Buttons- 11/1 for the OLBG – 0.1pt WIN

Indian Opera – NON RUNNER

Knocknanuss – 16/1 for the Arkle – 0.05pt WIN

Day One Review:

The rain starts at Cheltenham tonight about 11pm and goes on right through until time of first race. That’ll do for Buveur and I saw some 11/4 around today. Doubt that will be there tomorrow so get on tonight. I give Verdana Blue a chance if the rain stays away and the three mares getting seven pound allowance is an issue especially in the case of Apples Jade whose demolition job in The Irish Champion hurdle has made her favourite coming in. Distance and Cheltenham my worries for her. Ground also may be going against her best but she is poised to make a dingdong of it with that weight allowance. Buveur only just squeaked Melon last year but had a wind op on the back of that and reproduce the Fighting Fifth form and I think he’ll win – the softer the better. You know my theories on Henderson when he has more than one in a race though (even the Champion hurdle) and I did want to back Verdana again in this and very interesting that Nico rides Brain Power. Can’t believe they are serious about his chance (although with Henderson you never know) and Russell on Verdana to give her that extra shove up the hill? If its not too soft, I can’t rule her out. She is definitely a Cheltenham horse and has been placed last two festivals running on up the hill after having gotten stuck in traffic. This might be a sweeter passage and she has come of age this year. That Xmas Hurdle win was no fluke but she did catch Buveur on his unfavoured ground.

Henderson though. I won’t be letting Buveur run without a saver on Verdana just in case.

Trading on the To Follows will be my order of the day all week. Day One sees Lady Buttons as my one to roar home. Realistic chance if a somewhat hopeful one in view of Irish domination of this race in recent times. Two deflected to the Champion however. Never a better chance for the Lady and her attitude is top drawer but her lack of experience at the track keeps my staking cautious. Likewise on Knocknanuss who I don’t fancy much (Will be shuting for Lalor who runs for my Yankee). Moore stable quiet and Gary on Telly today saying he wouldn’t run him if it tips (but the owners insist) and his fall in Ireland was a shoulder jarring injury. Be amazed if he wins to be honest but Chelters and he has the class. You never know. Got to have a fiver on just in case!! Kick myself for missed winners at Cheltenham. Itchy Feet is value and an unknown on the soft ground. Gets 5lb off the Tizzard horse from LTO so value on his form if he does do the ground. Been seriously kept for this which is sometimes a good sign. Have fun!  

Day two:

Lady Buttons – NON RUNNER

Tombstone – NON RUNNER bringing down the ante-post bet but still entered in the County hurdle and tellingly also in at Kempton Saturday. That looks his target now.

Day three:

Frodon

Benatar

Lostintranslation

Day four:

Frodon

Elegant Escape

Tombstone

More Cheltenham blogging on the morrow………….

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.2875 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons

Ribble Valley

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for  The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Knocknanuss

The Mighty Ash

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

Tombstone – Entered for County Hurdle (Mar 15) & Kempton (Mar 16)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 2)

0.185 points on BUVEUR D’AIR to defend his Champion hurdle crown at 5/2

Take the price now. I expect it to be shorter on the day. I’ve been keen on this bet so long as it comes up soft for months. Ever since the Fighting Fifth and the demolition of Samcro. Wind op a success. So was the deflector of running him in the Xmas hurdle on good ground against a stablemate who could take advantage and get his price for the crown slung out from odds on to the current 5/2. That Henderson masterstroke also encouraged Elliot and Mullins to run their mares here further ensuring a value price.

Buveur is a different beast on soft ground. A bull. I don’t expect the mares to get too near.My considered effort at getting the 2019 Cheltenham Staggered acca off to a flying start.

And a free bet for us to boot!!  

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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