BOZmail – March 11th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY MARCH 11th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-20 PLUMPTON

LIM in a nutshell again. I was wrong about All Currencies (got spooked by the loose horse but no excuses and off my to follow list for that. Sadly taken away in horse ambulance after race) but couldn’t have had the winner for washers (wind op was the clue but no chase form meant never a likely bet for me). Yet won. Nature of the system. So no big pot for Cheltenham but we continue inching towards annual profit anyways.

Happy to take on Myplaceatmidnight back in a novice hurdle at Plumpton Monday despite the presence of top jock Ms Frost who I don’t oppose lightly these days. Does have a penalty to overcome and not guaranteed to like the ever softening ground. Three other winners also in the field to make it a competitive event (probably means one of the two rags will win based on last two days’ evidence!). The Moore recruit from France is an unknown but looks sure to be in the mix at his local track but I favour Push The Tempo for the value with claiming Rex Dingle levelling the weights playing field and the horse does have a distinct time advantage over the Fav. I’m really ill Bill but I’m AlrightJack (excuse me quoting my own poetry!) also provides good cover and is the one horse in the field most likely to appreciate the ground. Step up in distance also looks a positive on breeding.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAYonMYPLACEATMIDNIGHT(around 2.7 no greater than 3.2)

0.1pt BACK on PUSH THE TEMPO

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 61/86 = 70.93% :   BACKS: 13/55 = 23.63%

THE BOZ’s CHELTENHAM BLOG – DAY THREE:

My list of To Follow entries then is as follows:

Day one:

Itchy Feet

Lady Buttons

Indian Opera

Knocknanuss

Day two:

Lady Buttons

Tombstone

Day three:

Frodon

Benatar

Lostintranslation

Day four:

Frodon

Elegant Escape

Tombstone

I also trigger the next leg of the staggered acca today as an ante-post value wager now we have confirmation that the Champion hurdle will be run on soft ground (see below). Wintry around Cheltenham today with more rain forecast for next two days.

If you haven’t heard of it before, I tell you (and remind others) of the strong Irish tradition to send a plot horse to Stratford the day before the Festival starts. Their National attempt to subvert the English and create their pot to pay for festivities at Cheltenham. This was a big feature of my childhood with Dad a regular in the Ring at Stratford and every year seeking to protect himself from the attack. He would hedge every bet he could placed on an Irish runner on the Monday.

Not quite such a thing as it used to be and word was the Irish missed a couple of years in recent times just to let the dust settle. Gavin Cromwell runs two this year though with Lever Du Soleil set to take on the Paul Nicholls odds on shot in the first race. This has the smell of one over on the English about it. His other runner is Ming Dynasty later on. I won’t be at all surprised to see one of those two win and will be trading on the races to take advantage of the old tradition. When I asked about it over in Ireland last week I received a nod and a wink as my answer. The whole nation will know about it if its on so watch the market for clues. They stow the plot horse as a free ride in a box coming over anyways for Festival week and pay the fare by letting all the Irish trainers in on it. So the tradition goes. We’ll see what we will see but you heard about it here!

More Cheltenham blogging on the morrow………….

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.2875 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for  The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Taunton (Mar 11)

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

Tombstone – Entered for Coral Cup (Mar 13) & County Hurdle (Mar 15)

THE NH TO FOLLOW TREBLE on SUNDAY:

2-20 WARWICK – ALL CURRENCIES @ 7/1 – 3rd

3-35 MUSSELBURGH – INDIAN OPERA @ 2/1 – FELL

3-45 NAAS – KAISER BLACK @ 3/1 – 1st

Well I enjoyed the Kaiser Black win anyways especially as tipping

colleague and friendly head to head combatant Dr Nick Hardman

napped the Mullins mare. You had to move

quick to get the 3/1 but it was there with two bookmakers and it has done

some repair work to the fixed odds deficit here. Needless to say, I traded

and showed a profit on all the above three as singles and easily offset

the treble stake loss. As mentioned in the pre-amble, I introduced old

BOZmailers to the concept of always trading to follow horses in June

2018 and we showed considerably increased profits over fixed odds

play. Having introduced new BOZmailers to the list from January, I

do intend to withdraw it from the fixed odds play after the Cheltenham

Festival to cut down on my workload and give more time and emphasis

to LIM and the staggered acca (which hasn’t really got going yet on the

new service) as was the original intention. I will publish the current list

on the day I take it down for those interested in continuing following it

as a source of daily trades who can keep a copy for their own use. I

will also be keeping the list in my own records and work and will publish

additions and deletions to the list on here in future under the simple banner

of horses recommended for daily trade play. Thus you will be able to keep

your own copy of the list up to date and active if involved in daily trading

you are. That is of course my recommendation for everybody. Daily trading.

As I’ve said many times, the days of fixed odds betting for the profit driven

punter are dying – near dead.Especially the cautious ones like me.

Trading is the new world. BOZ    

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 2)

0.185 points on BUVEUR D’AIR to defend his Champion hurdle crown at 5/2

Take the price now. I expect it to be shorter on the day. I’ve been keen on this bet so long as it comes up soft for months. Ever since the Fighting Fifth and the demolition of Samcro. Wind op a success. So was the deflector of running him in the Xmas hurdle on good ground against a stablemate who could take advantage and get his price for the crown slung out from odds on to the current 5/2. That Henderson masterstroke also encouraged Elliot and Mullins to run their mares here further ensuring a value price. Buveur is a different beast on soft ground. A bull. I don’t expect the mares to get too near. My considered effort at getting the 2019 Cheltenham Staggered acca off to a flying start.

And a free bet for us to boot!!  

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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