BOZmail – MARCH 10th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY MARCH 10th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

2-20 WARWICK

Big day Sunday with three to follow horses running and with all three in with a chance. The possibility for an occasional BOZ to follow treble which is timely in view of the desire to create a Cheltenham pot. More on that below.

First a bit about LIM strategy and tactics for those still grappling with getting best price and mastering the art of laying on the exchanges. The past four lays have produced challenges and a few have emailed in for advice on how best to optimise.

Two things I’d say first, experience of reading and watching markets develop in this  sphere is invaluable. Getting to know serious market drifts and spotting them early because bookmaker or stable intervention is skewing the market is invaluable. There is no substitute for experience on this one. Dominateur and Divine Messenger on the 7th and 8th were strong odds on shots well touted in the press and Dominateur in particular took huge swathes of money which you can watch on the Betfair exchange (click the icon to the left of the horses name) which gave a huge clue to the stable confidence and the fact that the Boz had got that one wrong. Using my staggered staking technique, I’d taken 10% the night before in case I did have it right but was  able to delay my other 90% until very late in view of the rapidly sinking price. Arguably I could have saved myself a loss by aborting the 90% of the bet because by that stage, I was of the opinion that the stable knew more than I had done. I didn’t abort. It was a small play and I was profit protecting the day before only so I did do the full lay. That was a mistake and my score will have suffered against others’ because of that.

The second thing to say though is that I was in bullish and confident mood because of the day before’s success. If you didn’t get on Edgar (and I could see the real clamour to get on early Tuesday night as I was forced to take larger than ideal at 2.92) then you didn’t click into the confidence of my write up there. Likewise with Katpoli on the ninth. I had both of those calls bang on and wrote them up with extra detail and confidence all of which you can check after you have read it. Strategically those are the ones you want to not be missing. Those are the ones it pays not to do staggered staking on but get on however you can. If you watched the markets on Edgar and Katpoli you saw two things. The mass of Bozmail layers causing the drift in their eagerness to benefit. So getting on early those times and at full stake is wise. I wanted 2.5 there but I was forced to take 2.92 because you guys were quicker than me! Happy with that because I was very confident I’d got that one right and would thus have been happy with 3.6 or 3.8 if I’d had to take that. Price you take is less of an issue when they win! My parameters are just a guide for those new to this game. Experienced Bozmailers caught my confidence and kept on laying as the price drifted. Only the less experienced stayed out and thus have a big missed profit. But learn from that if that was you. Bookmakers get the Boz vibe too either directly or indirectly. The market tells its story. Won’t have been just me either that saw Edgar was a false fav. All the clues were there as I flagged up. You gotta know what those mean of course. Look back at it now and assimilate to what you saw when you watched the race run. And see how on the Dominateur and Divine Messenger days I had staked down because I didn’t have the same ammo of confidence. I could have been right about those two but I wasn’t and my caution was decent strategy. Likewise I was cautious on Katpoli who I did get right because I was protecting consecutive losing days and also not taking on a fav. All that is part of the long term strategy. The reason why I’m ahead in the long run always. Its not about me being a great tipster. I’m the first to accept I’m not that. I can do a decent race read in general and turning that into long term profit does require additional knowledge and effort at playing the market effectively. It won’t and doesn’t suit all but Bozmailers over the years tell me they’ve liked it because it does require something of them too. It does allow you to make input into what I’ve pointed you towards. You aren’t in general being spoon fed with directives. I just give advice as best I can. It still requires you to make it a success.With your decisions and actions. And those will get sharper with practice if you put the effort in. If you can take pleasure and satisfaction from that, then LIM will be for you. Don’t worry about outscoring or under optimising at this stage if you are new to it. That’s just us old hands comparing notes. I am 0.79 down on the last four days compared to a BOZmailer I’ve known for ten years now and who’s much sharper and dedicated than I am at reading markets. It doesn’t matter. I enjoy that he works from my gen. I do the race read. That’s what I’m better at! It’s a game and like in all games you improve your score the more you practice.

Try staggered staking if you haven’t yet. Do that on my less bullish write ups. Doesn’t suit all but it is a useful tool and needs practising before you can add comfortably to your armoury. And steer clear of SPs! Those are the two advices I’ve been bandying around most over the past few days!!

Its a long race. I don’t use the tortoise and the hare in my promo for nothing. The thing I guarantee is that we will be ahead of the game in the end. Not always by much unless I’ve found a stormer (as I did on Boxing Day or when the occasional To Follow trebles or the staggered accumulators come in) but always ahead. That’s a promise.

Just one other thing I wanted to say. I couldn’t have picked Le Milos as a winner in a million years on Saturday which is as good an example of why I still do LIM after all this time as you’ll get. I won in a race I couldn’t pick the winner in. LIM in a nutshell. Not always that successful but more often than not.

And so on to Sunday and three possible LIM races each with a fancied to follow horse therein. And so I get creative on such days and devise out of the box bets.

I have race read all three in depth and am fairly bullish as you’ll see below.

But still the discipline of just one LIM play on the day and for that I’ve chosen the 2-20 at Warwick largely because of the price of the favourite Dalila Du Seuil which was a staggering 1/3 on the first tissue but has steadied at 4/9 now. Get on at that if you can. I fear a drift tomorrow unless the connections know something I don’t. Wasn’t that impressive on chase debut, running keen early and being gifted the race by Kalahari Queen who goofed the last when seeming to have Dalila held. KQ has gone on to sort of frank the form since in a weaker race but the bigger issue for me about Dalila is the worry about whether the extra distance will suit. The barking dogs are saying yeh but the breeding says nay and that is largely borne out by the formbook. He needed to be pushed out to win LTO even after that gift at the last. Not guaranteed to stay the extra two furlongs says I. So distance not a negative but a decided question mark so that mega odds on looks decidedly cock eyed. I didn’t even have him favourite after my race read with the Skelton horse getting that honour but I fancied we could take him on too as he steps up in class. A horse I know on the Verdana Blue formline and has some decent chalks on his bedpost but obviously not a Skelton top notch as he runs here instead of Cheltenham. And I say open to being outclassed by a good one.

Which I think All Currencies is and 7/1 is a really tasty price. You might get bigger if they go mental on the Fry fav but chance to practice your staggered staking and take some 7/1 now in case it goes the other way. He will definitely stay the 20 furlongs and arguably wants further. I see him at optimum at three miles and breeding and PTP form backs that up. He lacks a turn of foot as was exposed by Good Man Pat LTO but that form has also been franked at higher level and Dalila will have to have some serious speed and jump convincely to keep the Moore horse at bay. 7/1 looks real value to me and I chalked him at 7/2 in my tissue. Whatduhavtoget provides decent LIM cover against the shorty if All Currencies can’t do the pace of the race and unless there is something serious I don’t know about Dalila, this looks a good LIM play to me and a decent first leg for our attempt at a bumper treble (see below).

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on DALILA DU SEUIL (around 1.45 and ok up to 2.0)

0.2pt BACK on ALL CURRENCIES

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 60/85 = 70.58% :   BACKS: 13/54 = 24.07%

THE BOZ’s CHELTENHAM BLOG – DAY TWO:

Not too much more news today on this front other than the weather report of windy and wet weather expected especially for the first day on Tuesday. Bodes well for my reading of the Champion Hurdle. Bog trotters ruled at Sandown on Saturday and look for them in your first couple of days selecting.

I spent some time today on the Coral Cup to see whether I’ll be hedging my Tombstone bet if I get chance. Not a race I can claim to race read comprehensively. Far too many runners and possible runners for that. I’m trying to see how much of a dark horse bet my whisper horse is. Elliot has another much touted one in the race but that worries me not. Awaiting now for declared jockey bookings. That should harden whether I’m in to keep my voucher or hedge it at the first opportunity!

More Cheltenham blogging on the morrow………….

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.1875 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for  The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for Musselburgh (Mar 10) & OLBG (Mar 12)

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black Entered for Naas (Mar 10)

All Currencies Entered for Warwick (Mar 10)

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Taunton (Mar 11)

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

Tombstone – Entered for Coral Cup (Mar 13) & County Hurdle (Mar 15)

THE NH TO FOLLOW TREBLE on SUNDAY:

2-20 WARWICK – ALL CURRENCIES @ 7/1

3-35 MUSSELBURGH – INDIAN OPERA @ 2/1

3-45 NAAS – KAISER BLACK @ 3/1

0.2pt TREBLE

A 96/1 treble at those odds so go for it as best you can.

I’ve covered the first race above and before that runs there is

an important sighter at Musselburgh where Real Armani runs

in the 2-00 and will give us a clue as to how serious a chance

Indian Opera has. Was 35 lengths 2nd to him in that dubious race

at Musselburgh which made connections dream that Indian Opera

was group class. Still entered in the OLBG and that’s because she

posted a fast time again when winning LTO at Catterick following

the pacesetting she did for the classy Lady Buttons at Doncaster.

Really could be good but has to give whacks of weight here so will

need to be to win. Liva and Desert Island Dusk are dangers. The

former in particular although the latter looks good on ratings. Giving

a stone to Ballynanty might also prove tough but this mare owes us

nothing already so we stand by her here and roar her on from the

front to see if she has the pluck to last home again.

Kaiser Black’s race could have been an LIM play as I fancy Mullins’

second string over the fav based on form behind Le Rochebourg.

Camelia De Cotte’s jumping was poor that day and should be

tested again here at this level with Robin Des Floret preferred

despite the jockey bookings. Happy to be on Kaiser Black and

form behind La Bague au Roi suggests he is the class of the race.

Would ideally want further and is a similar bet to All Currencies.

Class will decide and I’ll be with the stayer who jumps best every

time.

My betting strategy will be not to bet Indian Opera as a single if

All Currencies wins but to go small single on him (0.2pt) if the Moore

horse gets beat. I will back Kaiser Black (0.5pt win) if All Currencies

fails and likewise if Indian Opera goes down but if both the first

two legs win, I suspend the single on Kaiser Black and then almost

certainly lay him to shortest price I can get (maybe in running) to

create an arb on the treble. This is an option I always consider

and recommend although I know lots of BOZmailers don’t like the

trading option. I will certainly also be trading in running on my singles

with all three. That said, this is the most bullish I have felt about a

Daily treble since Boxing Day 2017 which was the last time The

Bozmail landed one. That said, none of the three above mentioned

come into the weapons grade category to have me suggesting a second

leg of the staggered acca. All have caveats and doubts. An exciting

possibility nevertheless! Enjoy!!     

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

***********************************************************

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of the breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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