BOZmail – JUNE 7th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY JUNE 7th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.645 points (-0.355 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = +0.085 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = -0.27 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 0/1 = 0%  Backs : 0/1 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Locked back down until further notice:

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

A few things to say for Sunday and a request for you to voice your opinion on the matter as we continue on with this most unusual year of racing. But first some good news. I had an LIM play lined up for Saturday but told myself that if Ghaiyyath won, it would be a sign that I was coming in from lockdown too soon and that I should shelve the LIM planned for Saturday. That proved a good bank management decision as I was taking on Terebellum with Magic Lily in the only small field race of the day. So have swerved a second loser which you would think was excellent news but has instead caused some fundamental LIM issues as part of the LIM system is that it goes every day to get me in the rhythm and allows for some days when with hindsight I shouldn’t have played (i.e. these last two days) because that of course is always only hindsight talking. I still thought both bets were worth playing and the fact that the fav won both only actually means that of course not all LIM plays succeed and it hasn’t been a great time to be starting a cycle given what we know about the lockdown break and the extra crocodile traps that brings in regarding horses’ fitness and reasons for racing. There is a greater unknown in the rhythm of things than would be normal for the daily bet as it was initially devised.

Which leaves me caught between the seemingly common sense decision now to carry on anyways and accept that this initial patch could be rocky and not the LIM we set out to pursue this year or to shelve it completely and wait even more than the ten weeks we already have until such time as normal service is resumed.

Two aspects lend toward the latter which are my greater preference for NH racing and it coming back in a few weeks time (but also set for a period of crocodile traps regarding horses’ fitness and reasons to race) and the argument that we shouldn’t be risking going into bank when waiting for better circumstances for LIM to operate in makes much more prudent sense.

Two things against that and for the carry on regardless argument are that there is a reason LIM goes every day and was designed so to do. That’s because I, as a tipster, get oiled and kept oiled by the daily activity. Take me off the treadmill for any length of time and I do get rusty and take my time to ease back in. If you think back to the start of Part One in 2020, I started well first few days from Feb one start but that was after a month’s break and the first few days were deliberately mega cautious to avoid dipping into bank but the rusty patch did then show itself and I went into the red briefly before the crackerjack at Southwell on Tigray which got the cycle on to sound footing. Inching forward for a few weeks thereafter before the hiatus occurred and racing suspended for weeks sending me spinning back into rustiness.

Was it really rustiness that scuppered me with Ghaiyyath and Terebellum? Well it certainly didn’t help as the overlooking Meydan form on turf highlights. I do get rusty. Been at it many years so I know full well what rusty is. Am a chess player too. Same there. Have ten weeks off playing and I need a few games to get back in the groove.

Same for Oisin Murphy. Weight rose to 9st 4lb during lockdown and needed a few rides to get him back in the groove. Now look at him. Doesn’t often take long. But the practice in real time does help. I’ve practiced during my ten weeks off and likewise did so with Magic Lily on Saturday. Practising and playing in real time are different. I do need that everyday rhythm to get me bang back in the groove. So days out of the saddle might save us money as they did on Saturday but in the long term definitely slow down the return back to the in the groove days. Those who followed me last year know that in June and July I often go on purple streaks. It is prime time of year. 

This year is different but I’m wondering now if I make things worse rather than better by sitting out.

Ultimately you might want me to make my own mind up but a few have hinted in emails over the past few days that you are paying me for the daily nature of LIM and that if back in the saddle and taking a few initial losers due to rustiness is what it takes, a few losers aren’t much to pay for getting the show back on the rails sooner rather than later. And such is the nature of what has happened this year that sitting out and waiting for normal conditions to resume is a big IF. They may never return to what we had before and what LIM relied on (i.e. a regular spread of small field races most days) and so every day sat out is a day spent not getting back oiled as a tipster.

So although my bank management instincts tell me staying out on Saturday was correct and that is vindicated by the result, you have the request to voice your formal opinion now so that if enough of you say get back in the saddle and get oiled now, I will be inclined to act on that. I’m very split on my best course. Bank management says wait, tipster says you gotta get back in the saddle even if there is only one race to choose from each day. That scenario does crop up during a year cycle anyway. I’m not afraid of having only one race to choose from. But I am also conscious that it is a convenient excuse for a losing run when I can say I would have done better with more races to choose from.

So cast your vote:

a/ to get back into daily LIM now when and whilst we can.

b/ wait until there are multiple small field races to choose from each day again, as was planned for, which will be enhanced by the return of NH racing.

c/ leave the decision to The Boz to play only when he feels its right.

You are paying, so i feel you should have your say even if you think its ultimately a decision I should make myself. And like I say, I am struggling to make it. My ultimate caution will keep me out when there is doubt. But I’m not paying! So I don’t ultimately get a vote and if I do I abstain! I want you to voice your opinion. The majority vote will decide me.

Some other things to note which may help you decide if you’re finding it as hard to decide in these unprecedented times as I am.

1/ There is only one qualifying LIM race on Sunday and I’m staying out until I hear from you. If forcing myself to play to get oiled, I would look to oppose Fanny Logan despite it being from the John Gosden yard who have definitely returned from lockdown in fine fettle. The fav has shown previous reluctance over this longer trip and is actually held by the second fav on last year’s May Chester form but is still not one I am champing to oppose knowing how Gosden is the maestro of giving his stayers time to develop into their potential. He may be wrong stepping this horse back up in trip but I ain’t keen to spend my money proving it. So we are out. If it goes and gets beat however, it shows my rustiness does need addressing. You may argue if I’d got back in the saddle, we’d be a step closer to getting back in the groove. If it wins,I am back in the groove as it felt to me before I had confidence dented by Ghaiyyath.

I have looked at that VTR again a few times and don’t think it was a disastrous pick by any means. Ghaiyyath did win untroubled and was more impressive than I expected but AVD did run his race and the lockdown factor excused the other two.

Add it to Magic Lily as well however and the fact I missed that Meydan form was on turf and I think my rustiness is in no doubt. But the only way to address that is to get going again in real time. I did say it ain’t an easy decision!

2/ There is one LIM qualifying race at Lingfield on Monday and another that with confidence and bank to play with I’d be all over. Fancy the outsider against the fav in classic Tigray style. But again all runners have been off for months and fitness could be anywhere. Caution is saying stay out. Tipster is saying get stuck in and get oiled. 

Over to you to voice your opinion!

3/ The performance of the shortlist system since racing resumed helped BOZbets get his confidence back. I have used it to help and ignored it on the Ghaiyyath play which was perhaps a second mistake I made.Overconfident that I was over my rustiness. A few who have emailed in have asked why I abandoned the lay all at non premier tracks strategy when that got to 67 points up after five days play and is set to add to that considerably on day 6. The shortlist does know what it is doing and in general I do know how to interpret it and play it. That first day back at Newcastle cast some initial doubt but Newcastle has settled into being a lay track emphatically since and wiped that blip out. Newmarket’s good first day has also not carried forward. This is prime time of the year for the shortlist and I have been considering bringing it right in to play on the BOZmail should it look like LIM has been irreversably damaged by the lockdown break. For this year at least and until coronavirus is gone and UK racing returns back to its old self. Too early to judge on that one yet I think and if shortlist is not damaged, no reason to think LIM is providing a/my rustiness is addressed and b/ we start getting regular LIM small field qualifiers on a daily basis.

Whilst on the shortlist theme, a few have asked what single selections on a shortlist mean. Do we treat them as premium bets to be staked up on? Answer is that we remain undecided on that one. For many years, we assumed we could double or treble stake on shortlist single selections anywhere and this worked for a long time and then hit a downturn for which we could find no good reason. Logically they are strong selections especially at the premier meetings so those who followed Mishriff at Newmarket on Saturday were well rewarded.Then the really red hot one – Pinatubo – gave some back albeit only a smidgeon of what the first one won. You see why we remain undecided. My general view is that if the value is there, get stuck in. It wasn’t on Pinatubo. I was a layer of that purely because of its price in such a race (but then I laid Ghaiyyath!). And you may have noted that Sunday’s single selection is also a value pick in the 1000 guineas. I’ve had a good look at Mrs Harrington’s mare who now gives Oisin the chance of a unique guineas double. She’s a sprinter with speed and her getting the mile is a serious unknown on form although not impossible on breeding through the dam’s sire. And who do you trust most as a trainer when tempted to go against horses that don’t look like they’ll stay? Answer is The lady that saw Magic of Light as a Grand National runner up at 66/1 when the book said 3 miles was maximum. Her and John Gosden who saw that Stradivarius might be untouchable at two miles. Neither of those looked stamina types in their early days. Sprinters rarely win the Guineas up the Newmarket hill and plenty of hot favs have failed in the past.

Millisle however is value. Ridden by the man of the moment jockeywise and trained by the indomitable Mrs H (survivor of the COVID19 bug). 

That’s my fun bet for Sunday whilst I wait to hear what you think I should do going forward!

4/  Saturday’s Shortlists all proved to be Saturday lay level stakes winners. As well as the Newmarket score shown on the published, Newcastle won 13.9 points for laying all selections level stakes and Lingfield 9 points with four races still to run at time of writing. Next year’s published shortlist is certain to include the lay lists at non premier tracks as part of the service! 

THE BOZmail post lockdown litmus test:

SHORTLIST LEVEL STAKES DAILY P/L :

Day One: +23.16

Day Two: – 29.33

Day Three: -36.58

Day Four:  +15.00

Day Five: -40.57

Day Six: -7.09

The shortlist service at premier tracks does resume for definite on June 11th at Bath and if you aren’t already signed up for that but would like to be, do let me know (garyboswell@hotmail.com). I’ll send you revised subscriber details. Just £15 for the rest of the year now.

NEWMARKET SHORTLIST: (6.6.20) RESULTS : 3 winners : 8 placers 1 x CSF

1-15 Copper Knight(2nd@28/1) – Leodis Dream – Aplomb – Blue De Vega

1-50 Judicial(2nd@15/2) – Ornate – Shades of Blue

2-25 Magic Lily – Terebellum(1st@10/11)

3-00 Mishriff(1st@10/1)

3-35 Pinatubo(3rd@5/6)

4-10 King’s Pavilion – Aces – Exec Chef

4-45 Qaysar(3rd@9/2) – Sir Maximilian – Pogo(2nd@13/2) – Three Saints Bay

5-20 Lazuli(2nd@11/4) – Smokey Bear(1st@4/1) – Jouska – Will To Win(NR) – Endowed – Romero(NR) CSF = £15-14

5-55 Byron Flyer – Nate The Great(3rd@7/4) – Rock Eagle(2nd@9/2)

(Incidence: 25 selections in 9 races) Level Stakes Win P/L = -7.09

NEWMARKET SHORTLIST: (7.6.20)

1-15 NO SELECTIONS

1-50 Communique – Trueshan – Ghostwatch

2-25 Davydenko – Dalgarno – West End Charmer

3-00 Alpen Rose – Run Wild

3-35 Millisle

4-10 Kuwait Currency – Ebury – Baltic Baron

4-45 King Leonidas – Eastern World

5-20 Boss Power – Spectrum of Light

5-55 Native Tribe – Luigi Vampa – Arthurian Fable – Bronze River

6-30 Jabbarockie – Daschas – Savalas

(Incidence : 23 selections in 9 races) Level Stakes Win P/L = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Martineo

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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