BOZmail – JUNE 26th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY JUNE 26th  2019 

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-10 FFOS LAS

The withdrawal of Lady Quickstep and the aggressive ride given by O’Donoghue spoiled the Tuesday LIM play somewhat but Bredenbury was probably going on to win anyway having burned off Al Verde. Odds on meant not too much damage done and we live to fight another day and quickly move on to try to get the lay record back on track.

The way I type these days at my advanced age, I often transpose letters and have to correct so I have typed and will continue to type today’s lay name very carefully! Strangely enough, when I look at it I think of our new potential prime minister! Not Boris so much (although maybe the name fits him too!) but t’other fella. The one who has so many businesses making money out of his political position that you have to admire his cheek! The health secretary who gave the contract to sell drugs to the NHS to his own company!! Classic. I work a lot in hospitals and during the junior doctor dispute they had his name graffitied on the wall all over the place where they spelled the name that rhymes with his surname correctly!

In case you are wondering what the hell I’m waffling on about, Wednesday’s lay is the beautifully named KING CNUT. Won well LTO but has to carry a stern penalty here and takes on several who are better handicapped. Crucially also, Chris Gordon’s yard has fallen into a downturn since that win, especially with his form in running percentage which has crashed to a worrying 14%. No winners in the past fortnight and all but one runner performing below expected form.

My pick against him is Donald McCain’s Middlebrow who won well in October and hasn’t carried the penalty well since but is back on his winning mark now. New Millenium gives us good LIM cover and I don’t rule Game Line nor Storm Home out either. Which according to BOZmail rule 6 makes Percy Street the winner! Happens a lot when you play LIM. Happy to be taking on the fav as I am.  

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on KING CNUT (around 3.0 : no greater than 3.6)

0.1pt BACK on MIDDLEBROW

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

              — Whole race played as trade– 

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

18th:    -0.415 (+1.629) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 5.3

19th:    +0.49 (+2.119) Lay @ 1.36

20th:    +0.294(+2.413) Lay @ 1.33

21st:   +0.3757(+2.7887) Back @ 2.12 : 

            — Whole match played as a two horse back trade —

22nd:   +0.184 (+2.9727) Back @ 1.94 

23rd:    +0.145 (+3.1177) Lay @ 3.65 : Back @ 3.65

24th:     BET VOIDED

25th:     -0.195 (+2.9227) Lay @1.78

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 114/171 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 30/111 = 27.02%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise – Entered at Newmarket (June 29)

Maydanny

Roseman 

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.2222 points.

Staggered acca number 12: (LEG 1)

SECOND ROUND AT EASTBOURNE ON TUESDAY:

0.5pt BACK on Johanna Konta to beat Maria Sakkari at best priced 4/9 – WON

Solid performance from Konta. Was particularly pleasing to see her breaking straight back after her mini blip in the second set after she had had a disorienting slip. Did well to gather and continue to assert her grass court dominance. No sign of the nerves today. Sakkari played well I thought to keep it tight throughout (helped a bit by on court coaching) but the grade A differential was there and we successfully land leg 1 of staggered acca number 12. If you are new to this, that means the 0.5pt stake back into the bank so that all subsequent legs are staked with cumulative winnings meaning we are on a free bet now until we call a halt. Next stake is 0.2222points.

If you are wondering how come bank is still at start point (no win no loss) after 11 accas already that is because we have traversed first leg several times and have had some appalling bad luck (and a couple of bad picks by me!) and not yet ceased an acca before the loser came. On the tennis acca here and with Eastbourne and Wimbledon to land it in, my optimum chance of landing one and calling the correct moment to cease and stop to bank the winnings. Tennis and football my two best areas for landing staggered accas. Tennis in particular because of the absence of draws! Only two possible results. Just have to string a few winners together in a row. Bit like winning a grand slam really! Fingers crossed I can break the year’s staggered acca duck here. I have actually had one first leg go down now I remember and I did cease a subsequent acca when loss was covered hence the back at starting bank point. Not after today though! We are now 0.2222 points up and of course you can stop and bank winnings at any point. I know a few did on a previous one when we got a couple of points up and it demanded placing a biggish stake on next leg. Over £200 if you play £100 a point. Not everybody’s cup of tea. It takes real nerve and discipline when you get to 8 points up as we did in November during the trial for this service. I needed the £800 at that time and called the halt. I got called chicken by a few and hold my hands up to that. We are all what we are. And you don’t have to stop just cos I am! 

Welcome to the rollercoaster ride of staggered accas if you are new to it. Got my head down to land a decent one for number 12.

Will shout when next selection emerges.  

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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