BOZmail – JULY 31st

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY JULY 31st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-00 PERTH

The bedrock of the LIM method over many years now has been that ability to identify gettable favourites and July has seen just six losing days with a purple patch of picking winners along the way that has dried up a bit now but we continue pushing the profit forward as is the LIM way. Touch of the importance of breaking even to maintain the profits earned but also up half a point in the past week and just the final day to go before we start all over again in August.

Torn between the two Johnson rides in the first two races at Perth as my oppose on final day. Little Stevie faces our hero of a week or two back Prettylittlething in the Handicap Chase and you could get interested in this if the excellent Millie Wonnacot can keep the horse up with the pace over this shorter distance. Question mark for me as the horse is all stamina and the drop to 2 miles is asking for trouble I’d have said especially as The Champ will know this and set out at a brisk pace to get PLT off the bridle early. She rides an equally canny race mind and it will be fascinating to watch if she can outthink the Champ.

An equally bizarre race entry in this novice hurdle as Indian Temple is an out and out chaser but the oddsmakers share my interest in him and have made him marginal odds on in the early tissue although I fancy that may not transpire into favourite on the off.

Braid Blue has the speedy credentials and has been defying the handicapper so far to the extent that he is being asked to give a whopping 21lb to Indian Temple who achieves comparable times as a chaser and beat Get Out The Gate comprehensively here LTO in a time that won’t have him far away. I take the fact that his canny trainer and excellent jockey are entered here as a pointer to the fact they think they can win it and in general, that 21lb sways me too. Giving 16lb to Little Millie is no gimme either so Braid Blue is my pick to try and keep the good lay month ending on a positive note.Is 11/10 on the early tissue but might start shorter so I’ll push the boat a bit and have a half point lay to attempt ending us with a plus 8 point month.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on BRAID BLUE ( around 2.1 or shorter : no greater than 2.5) 

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

16th:   +1.225(+5.305)Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 10.0

17th:   +0.336(+5.641)Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 2.4

18th:    +0.2 (+5.841) Backs @ 4.0 &4.5 : LAY unmatched

19th:  NON RUNNER

20th:    +0.54 (+6.381)Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 3.0 

21st:     -0.275(+6.106)Lay @ 2.1

22nd:   +0.194(+6.30) Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 9.0

23rd:    +0.743(+7.043)Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 5.0

24th:     +0.144(+7.187)Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 6.0

25th:     +0.193(+7.38) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 8.4

26th:      -0.334(+7.046)Lay @ 1.52 : Back @ 7.8

27th:      +0.145(+7.191)Lay @ 2.86: Back @ 6.2

28th:       NO PLAY DAY

29th:      +0.292(+7.483)Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 8.2

30th:      +0.145(+7.628)Lay @ 1.83 : Back @ 12.0

31st:

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 137/201 = 68.15% :   BACKS: 41/138 = 29.71%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee 

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charle Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial – Entered for Galway (1 Aug)&Chester (Aug 5)

FLAT HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY

3-35 GOODWOOD – DEE EX BEE @ 6/1 (Backed @ 11.0 : hedged Back @ 6.0)

Small profit. Didn’t doubt Frankie would get there. Dee Ex Bee came back again.

Wants 2m 6f by the looks! Done for toe though. Strad has both. Be a tough ask

to ever get him!

MONDAY 

6-40 WINDSOR – GOLD STICK @ 2/1 (Backed @ 3.75 : hedged Back @ 2.42)

Zero Profit. Educational watch however. Will be winning in time. Continue to follow.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

Will shout if or when another starter emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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