BOZmail – JULY 30th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JULY 30th  2019 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

*******************************************

2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

**************************************************

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

4-00 YARMOUTH

Exciting race at Newton Abbot especially with the way they bet the fav who never looked at any stage a likely winner. Sadly I never established whether Dr Newland was in attendance so had to content with my recommended stake but I did think we were in for some hurrahs as Included came easily to the front with his flat speed only to show inexperience jumping fences at pace and probably needs more time if indeed he likes chasing at all. Have to get paddock side with him sometime to interview him on his motivation! Great chase race to shout at though with the money horse well beat. Thoroughly enjoyed that!

Had a good look at the jumps action for Tuesday evening after our 200th LIM lay of the cycle was a successful one and I’m keen to start the next hundred on a plus note with the SR % going up again. So have sidestepped a tricky set of jumps races and landed on this highly competitive six furlong flat handicap where stable trends are the deciding factor for my bets. Majaalis makes handicap debut which can always go one of two ways and looks very short to me on what he’s done so far at novice level and takes a big hike in class to take on the big and experienced boys many of which have plusses especially Rocket Action with his gelding and wind op and Royal Residence who was unlucky to unseat LTO and looks to have his chance to make amends. Am keen to take on the Haggas inmate because the stable still has a long face and they are running like they are hurting. Such things are infectious. Simcock’s yard however had a buoyant winner in France on Monday and are in rude health with a 70% plus in running to form ratio and my old mate Hayley Turner gets on board the old boy Polybius who hasn’t done it for a while but has the times and the nous to strike here in what I consider another very open race with a too short fav. He’s on his mark and has black type to his name from early days.

Not going mad again though. Profit protection time as the month draws to a close. I don’t mind having a go when I fancy one strong. These have been mainly race reads throughout a successful July so I’ll stay stake consistent and save my punt for when the strong stuff comes along.  

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on MAJAALIS (around 2.4 : no greater than 2.8)

0.1pt BACK on POLYBIUS (around 7.0 or better)

***************************************************

This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

16th:   +1.225(+5.305)Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 10.0

17th:   +0.336(+5.641)Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 2.4

18th:    +0.2 (+5.841) Backs @ 4.0 &4.5 : LAY unmatched

19th:  NON RUNNER

20th:    +0.54 (+6.381)Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 3.0 

21st:     -0.275(+6.106)Lay @ 2.1

22nd:   +0.194(+6.30) Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 9.0

23rd:    +0.743(+7.043)Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 5.0

24th:     +0.144(+7.187)Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 6.0

25th:     +0.193(+7.38) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 8.4

26th:      -0.334(+7.046)Lay @ 1.52 : Back @ 7.8

27th:      +0.145(+7.191)Lay @ 2.86: Back @ 6.2

28th:       NO PLAY DAY

29th:      +0.292(+7.483)Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 8.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 136/200 = 68% :   BACKS: 41/137 = 29.92%

**************************************************************************************

SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

*****************************************************

HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charle Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial – Entered for Galway (1 Aug)&Chester (Aug 5)

FLAT HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY

3-35 GOODWOOD – DEE EX BEE @ 6/1

See if the better ground assists his chance. Wasn’t far behind last time. If you prefer each way, you could play that but I’ll head for the trade and see how Dettori looks in running. He was outstanding again on Enable the other day. But any improvement in Dee Ex Bee will have him thereabouts. I’d like to see SDS ride from the front and see if Frankie can tough it past on this ground. Should be another good watch!

MONDAY still to run:

6-40 WINDSOR – GOLD STICK @ 2/1

There’ll never be another Enable but Johnny G starts again with this young subject of her Majesty’s stable who found things happening a bit quick LTO up in the weights and starts in handicap company at a similar mark. Tissue favourite due to its class and potential for improvement up in trip but a watch and see brief really for me at that short a price.I don’t doubt the ability but a long term prospect really and 5/2 would be too short to tip. Each way chance in my book on what we’ve seen so far. So a watch on the market. Will back to lay if it drifts a bit with the possibility of leaving the hedge out if the in play evidence impresses and suggests a win might be on the cards. Alternative will be to watch and make notes. Pretty sure it is one to continue following after this race and back in future when the price is right.

*****************************************************  

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

Will shout if or when another starter emerges.

***********************************************************

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *