BOZmail – JULY 21st

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY JULY 21st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

2-40 NEWTON ABBOT

I’ve told you before how they regard Caius Marcius quite highly up here in Cumbria and he did indeed reverse earlier Perth form with Nietzsche at level weights with a strong front running display at Hexham.Travels a long way for this. Going to be tight between the front two here but I’m firmly with Ennistown’s turn of foot and expect another strong stalking race from Coleman despite or perhaps because of the drop in trip. He’s value aswell at the prices. Of course Francky Du Berlais didn’t frank the form however so I’ll continue playing cautious.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on CAIUS MARCIUS (around 2.25 : No greater than 2.5)

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

16th:   +1.225(+5.305)Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 10.0

17th:   +0.336(+5.641)Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 2.4

18th:    +0.2 (+5.841) Backs @ 4.0 &4.5 : LAY unmatched

19th:  NON RUNNER

20th:    +0.54 (+6.381)Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 3.0 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 130/192 = 67.70% :   BACKS: 40/130 = 30.76%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Ennistown-Entered at Southwell(Jul 23)

Francky Du Berlais – Entered at Cartmel (Jul 22)

Kaizer – Entered at Musselburgh (Jul 23)

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

3-20 Market Rasen – GET OUT THE GATE @ 25/1 – LOST

Goes off the to follow for now. Sweated up badly and never in this race and has been aimed too high by the looks. I expect them to take a break now and take stock. Shan’t give up on him entirely but will wait for stable to regain its Mojo before I go again. 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

Francky certainly had his chance but didn’t attack the last two fences nor finish particularly robustly so goes down as another staggered acca jinx horse. The Henderson winner was the one on the formline of our Cartmel race and was certainly a danger and the form of the stable on the day made our task harder. Not the only one who beat Francky though so not great as a grade A pick.May need shorter distance. I also may have been guilty of going in too early on second leg there. The free bet does cloud me on occasion and I’ve expended so much energy and effort on this bet this year to still stand at break even! It is how it goes sometimes of course but I am tempted to halt it now and expend my energy in other areas and LIM in particular. Cash builder still ticking along nicely. Attempt at the hoo har bet less impressive.

Will give it some thought next few days and shout if another starter emerges and I decide to carry this bet attempt on.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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