BOZmail – JULY 18th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY JULY 18th  2019 

I know a lot of BOZmailers will already know this but worth repeating again for newcomers that the BOZmail is, in general, posted the night before the date on the advice and should be opened as soon as received. I basically get the info and advices to you as soon as I have made my studies and decisions so that you get ample time to do your bit in terms of market watching, your own researches etc. The main purpose for early posting is so that you get best chance to achieve your price but as we saw on Monday it is also because the BOZ sometimes stumbles on some time sensitive info so that a tip can be included that is due to occur in the immediate future hence again good practice to open pronto so that you don’t miss the advice as I know a few did on Monday leaving the email unopened until the following day because of the date on the header. I apologise for not including in that header notice of impending event but I assumed that all BOZmailers were aware of the importance of opening emails as soon as they arrive in order to start the price track pronto. Your comments noted and I will try to remember to flag up immediate events in future. Cannot be stressed enough however that the email should be opened as soon as you receive. Sometimes there is no time to dawdle and important that I get it to you asap to ensure an optimum advice instead of a lesser one as happened on Monday. Those that did open and were on the strong pick thus saved me from putting out a second best Tuesday advice (which also scraped home but was much less profitable! These margins and bank managements are all part of the long term profit strategy which keeps the BOZmail permanently healthy). 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

Just four losing days from seventeen in July and one day away from a 100% week so head down to keep the good run going. Those who have been with BLWM for a while now should be aware that my advised stake plan for the past few months has been more geared at newcomers coming in than any reinvesting profit element so that those who do have a good BLWM profit in the bank now could consider 5% or 10% increase to my advertised stakes to play up winnings. This is the BOZmail way when annual subscribers are at work but has been played slightly more conservatively this year under the monthly marketing scheme that has been in operation and bringing new BOZmailers in regularly who are playing without BLWM profit behind them. That process will continue until the end of this first 12 month trial cycle (i.e. end of November) and plans are afoot to return to annual subscriptions as from early 2020 when The Boz will reintroduce profit reinvestment back into his staking plan.

So for now, we stay cautious on LIM but I am ready to go back and try to get the staggered acca finally off the mark for the year. You’ll see a new starter below.

LIM goes to Ffos Las  for the 7-30 Handicap hurdle where I won’t need to write too much about Pink Eyed Pedro and the fact that he is turned out in under a week after his last win once more. This is tougher and I also fancy Jimmy Rabbitte off a light weight and under STD. It is an open race with Forever Field and NotwhatIam potentially better class but having to give weight and a few questions to answer but the Henderson horse has had a wind op which could bring him into the picture. Mainly, it’s about Pedro for us who has been in sparkling form and we pay for the backs with a lay on Dovils Date who has also been on a winning spree but is hitting his buffer now up another 13lb in better class and with times also suggesting he’ll do well to win again here.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DOVILS DATE (around 3.5 : not greater than 4.0)

0.1pt BACK on PINK EYED PEDRO

0.1pt BACK on JIMMY RABBITTE

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

16th:   +1.225(+5.305)Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 10.0

17th:   +0.336(+5.641)Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 2.4

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 129/191 = 67.53% :   BACKS: 38/128 = 29.68%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

Ennistown

Francky Du Berlais

Kaizer

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick – Entered at Newbury (Jul 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 1)

5-50 FFOS LAS – MIDNIGHT FOLIE – 0.5pt LAY @ around 4/9

I nearly played this as a back on prettylittlething who does hold midnight folie on admittedly ancient form but the Mulholland horse has a huge absence to overcome so it is hardly a grade A back. Is value though with an interesting jockey booking (she’s good) and I wouldn’t put you off too much if you fancy the back with a fav carrying a whopping penalty to aim at. It is a fav with question mark about distance too and a tendency to clout the odd fence – often the last. He’s a squeaky 4/9 shot in my book mainly because of the just shy of two stone he has to give Mountain of Angels who comes here after an encouraging return to action (witnessed by The Boz) at Southwell and has times,ratings and stable in running form % all in his favour. Midnight Folie could start shorter than 4/9 in what is a more interesting three runner race than the betting tissue suggests and delaying your lay to optimise risk reduction may well pay dividends.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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