BOZmail – JULY 12th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY JULY 12th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.8313 points

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My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

My personal position is thus:

Serena Williams: 0.75pt LAY @ 7.8 : 0.2pt BACK @ 17.0 : 0.45pt @ 6.6 

= Current P/L :  +0.02

Simona Halep: + 0.75 points – 0.6 points – 0.2 points -0.45 points 

= Current P/L:  -0.5

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

6-10 FFOS LAS

Felix gets a line through for the future. Gets too lit up.

BOZmail rule number 1 for Friday. Whilst the rest of the racing world concentrates on a plethora of Grade 1 meets and races, the Boz hotfoots down to Ffos Las to follow a system the old man championed all throughout my apprenticeship. NH winners who turn out again within seven days was a particular system of his with an impressive SR over his 66 years in the game. It isn’t often however that the BOZmail backs same horse twice within a week as they will often start favourite after winning LTO. Bookmakers do know about this system too. Rule 4 for this one. Get your price early.

I like the look of Pink Eyed Pedro again however back over fences as his hurdling exploit didn’t take too much out of him and fencing is really his game. I’ve run the rule over the others and am hoping Bletchley Castle will both make the market and the pace of the race. My figures suggest Pedro has him and the others covered and if the prices are as early tissue suggest – 9/4 Pedro and 3/1 Bletchley Castle, I’ll break with the norm and go value back only on Pedro in order to stake up a tad. Not over keen for bank management purposes to take too much risk on Bletchley at that price although should the market sink him, I’ll happily lay to pay at around 7/4 or 2/1. There are others in the field to come past his frontrunning effort carrying a penalty so at not too much risk I’d be interested in that.

Fairly strong on a repeat for dominant point to pointer Pink Eyed Pedro however so win back for him the bet with his stable in rude health carrying 100% in running stats thanks to a second winner at Worcester on Monday alongside Pedro.

Recommendation:

0.3pt BACK on PINK EYED PEDRO (around 3.25)  

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 124/186 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 35/125 = 28%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick – Entered at Windsor (Jul 15)

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 1)

Will shout when the next opportunity emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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