THE BOZmail – JANUARY JAMBOREE
1/ LOSTINTRANSLATION: 8/1 for the Gold Cup
2/ VERDANA BLUE: 33/1 for the Champion Hurdle
3/ MAIRE BANRIGH: 25/1 for The Arkle
4/ THYME HILL: 6/1 for the Albert Bartlett
0.01pt FOUR TIMER for above four to all win at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival
Taken with Betfair Sportsbook who offered the acca edge of loss of just 500 points in the event of one of the four failing. So still over 55,000/1 for three winners. In view of Verdana ground aspect and Thyme Hill maybe running a different race, that seemed a fair way to go.
Shortlist Exotic Bet of the Day:
0.1pt STRAIGHT FORECAST – CHAMP to beat PAINT THE DREAM
0.1pt STRAIGHT FORECAST – CHAMP to beat DEYRANN DE CARJAC
You might have seen right there why I decided to rest LIM in January! Just summat skews in the stratosphere and my luck changes! So I get the outsider right in my forecast – Paint the Dream ran a cracker of a finish – but my traders read of the race that Champ might be vulnerable in the jumps department comes to haunt me with my trade lay then going on to win. LIM however was rested. Damage thereby limited. Not the start to 2020 I was looking for. Get up and dust myself down.
P/L = -0.2pt
To Follow Bet of the Day:
0.1pt WIN on WELSH SAINT @ 2/1 – 3rd
Trade was the way to go here though as backed at 3.8 and 3.0 offered in running but The Boz played the Jamboree fixed odds so will score as a loser. Actually disappointing run by Welsh Saint who was unable to go the pace but did stay on. A learning curve for the stable no doubt and he looks like he’ll go further. Disappointing he couldn’t step up at this point though and the first knock to the Cat Tiger formline in a while albeit not a massive knock.
Harry Skelton in the wars again I note. What make you of that? Looked a bit hard done by but not just me noticed his downside and looks like the stewards want to make the point!
P/L = -0.1pt
JANUARY JAMBOREE SCORE after DAY ONE: -0.3pt
The shortlists did a bit better than expected on New Years day with three winners at Cheltenham and eighteen losers and a -1 level point singles score but a couple of decent forecasts making it a plus day so that goes in the notebook for future reference and staying off those wasn’t a great call after all. So I came to day two full of intention to go down the shortlist route but it looks very much a day again to me to justify why I am resting LIM with just one qualifier over jumps at Ayr that is devilishly tough to call and a shortlist at Lingfield that has 30 runners in 8 races that looks hell bent on producing the more losers than winners stat again so I have instead decided on prudence after a poor day one and just cherry picked the first two races at Lingfield to give us a couple of small stake January Jamboree efforts without too much risk.
Shortlist System Nap of the Day:
11-45 @ Lingfield – TORO DORADO – 0.1pt WIN BACK @ 7/2
The Ed Dunlop 100% record of horses running to form over past 14 days and the booking of Luke Morris stand out here for me. The shortlist has it highlighted as a potential good thing under joint top weight. Not a tip to put your house on with no Lingfield form of note a bit of a negative, but very much an in the spirit of the jamboree pick to see if I can’t get us off the mark.
Shortlist Exotic bet of the Day:
12-15 @ Lingfield – FORTUNE AND GLORY-MR MAC-ROCK ICON
I always like it when the shortlist picks three outsiders in a race especially as form study shows one of them – Mr Mac – to have a credible chance on the book. It’s a small stakes play again (6 x £1 unit stake) but a Combination forecast for the Boz to reap big returns from small outlay should it come good.
6 x 0.01pt COMBINATION FORECAST on FORTUNE AND GLORY-MR MAC & ROCK ICON
Good Luck with your bets. BOZ