BOZmail – DECEMBER 19th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 19th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-15 NEWBURY

Small margins between success and failure sometimes. Only the result counts however and failure it was despite Nicolas Chauvin looking like he was coming to deliver my 23/1 and Halcyon Days jumping the last ahead. Long run in at Catterick however and seconditis and getting chinned and thirditis all in one day. Tough at times.

But it’s a long game and the upside was Nicolas Chauvin coming back to himself and Moffat’s horses all doing well on the day. Put him in the notebook for NTO especially if Richard Johnson gets booked. He had a tough day too with his disqualification at Fakenham.

Such is racing.

Need a turn in fortune coming into Xmas and no-one better to deliver that than the champ and the first of my Xmas/New Year To Follow horses on Wednesday. He was superb on Drinks Interval at Chepstow two runs back and reunites here after Tom O’Brien fell off him LTO. It was a jumping blip and he’ll need to be straighter here but the return to ridden by the champ ought to secure the potential of this horse which I believe to be vast.

We take on Pearl Royale again here having got him wrong at Carlisle and these two might be taking each other on for the lead but I’ll take Johnson over Cook every time to get it right and with not much between them in the betting, it is a clear call for Drinks Interval on my figures.

Magic of Light comes over from Ireland and provides welcome cover and is the preferred on class of the top two in the weights. The 4lb given to Drinks Interval however ought to be decisive and The Boz is certainly in need of a winner again now after a tough few days.

No knee jerk still however. Slowly,slowly catchy monkey.

 

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on PEARL ROYALE

0.25pt BACK on DRINKS INTERVAL

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 13.5/18 = 75% :  BACKS: 1/12 = 8.33%

 

**************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Well, we are set fair to watch the darts at 2-30pm Wednesday afternoon but after the shock exit of Peter Wright from the fourth quarter, the back to lay has already come in without a dart being yet thrown. Such is the nature of the beast and the name of the game. Wright’s exit caused Cullen’s price to plummet and you now have five options going in to tomorrow with your 100/1 voucher and the path you choose will determine the kind of punter you are:

A/ You do nothing and let the voucher ride. Cullen is in there now and could go all the way. He has the potential and the draw has opened up for him to a good shot at the semis at least when you will be able to cash in at big profit either way.

B/ You leave the bet on for tomorrow’s match against Brendan Dolan which Cullen is red hot favourite to win (4/11). That was my original plan for the staggered acca but I was looking at getting down to around a 40/1 lay after that and because of Wright’s exit, we already have access to some 40/1. Shock exits happen in any sport and Dolan could effect the shock win so cautious punters might prefer…

C/ Hedge now to 0.2pt @ 40/1 or anything in the low 40s and you are then in a position to return your stake to bank without a dart being thrown and have your 0.1pt free bet ready for leg 2 of the staggered acca as and when it occurs. You get a bonus with this of course of also having a free bet running on the rest of the PDC World Championship should Cullen go on to win. You won’t be surprised to hear this is what cautious BOZ has done.Returned my stake to bank. Got my 0.1pt stake free bet ready for leg 2 of the acca and got 1.7pts to come back off Cullen should he go on to win! I intend to watch the match with Dolan and if I’m impressed by Cullen’s form, I might even suggest we re-invest the 0.1pt free bet as a further stake on Cullen to win the title at the new price after he’s beaten Dolan.That’s a kind of sub option in option C/ and will need for Cullen to be mighty impressive for me to suggest it. He was a back to lay and I like to stick to original thinking in general but all things become possible when you play like this and it is worth always thinking things through and reviewing your options.

D/ Depending how much you fancy Cullen, you could hedge 0.1pt back at this stage and return your stake to bank and then consider the residue of the 5 to 6 points still to come back should Cullen go on to win as the second leg of your acca.

E/ You could completely cash out now and stake 0.25pt @ 41.0 if it is still available (recalculate if it is not) and thus have 0.15pts for your free bet second leg of the staggered acca.

 

Isn’t betting great when it gets like this. Have a think and enjoy whatever you choose to do. I confirm that I have already acted and taken option C/

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *