BOZmail – DECEMBER 17th

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY DECEMBER 17th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-50 FFOS LAS

Back on the bike (and nice not to get chinned on the line at last!) but still inclined to go steady to repair Saturday’s damage and this is the only real LIM qualifier on Monday with a Henderson hotpot looking a good thing in the only other race of the day over jumps. Had a quick look at the seller at Wolverhampton but that looks an awful race that the favourite should win.

So off to Ffos Las where readers of Betting Insiders (December 2017 issue) will know that I like to play the staggered acca here live in running when the ground is heavy. Look out for the high knee action and oppose favourites in general (unless they have solid heavy ground form) and several shorties on show here tomorrow.

I’ve looked hard at this race as part of my pre-race prep and must admit that I do think The Gipper looks to have the best credential. Two negatives however. The obvious very short favourite one (I had him at 7/4 in my book before tissue was issued) and the more difficult to assess fact that he is out again after only seven days.Under a penalty but still at a mark well below what he has won at before. This a horse all of whose previous wins have come after a decent break. Evan Williams also runs two at his local track and jockey bookings suggest Radical Archie is second string which form study confirms. He is third best in the race on my figures behind Llantara who will also love the ground and ran a very promising prep race at higher level LTO and looks to me to be the value in the race.

So a strategic play for me not wishing to take too much risk with the maybe that Llantaris might just expose a tired The Gipper on the infamous Ffos Las run in. I will be playing in running generally though throughout the card and fingers will tomorrow be permanently poised on the hedge button!

 

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on RADICAL ARCHIE

0.1pt LAY on THE GIPPER

0.1pt BACK on LLANTARIS

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 13/16 = 81.25%  :   BACKS: 1/10 = 10%

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

 

STAGGERED ACCA NUMBER 2:

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

Joe Cullen available to lay at 80.0 this morning on Betfair so those that do like to play risk free and got the 100/1 I recommended can hedge out now for a free bet over

the Xmas period. I personally will be hanging on until after first game played – which I expect him to win –  with a view to hedging out with profit to use on the second leg of the staggered acca.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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