BOZmail – 9th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 9th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

The US Open final was indeed a classic with Andreescu living up to her billing and surviving a monumental late charge from Serena who was a rabbit in headlights for some of the first 15 games. Her second serve very unusually misfiring. Those predicted nerves methinks. Those sweating on a Serena hedge were obliged and at 5-1 down second set could back at enormous odds to win either way! A yoyo in a Serena game isn’t all that common. Hope you enjoyed. The Boz posts a break even on his outrights but a win on trades in the tournament as a whole and most importantly achieved his ante-post Calendar Slam – successfully opposing all four favs in one calendar year! Tipping bragging rights my norm along with (very) modest gambling gains!

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +11.8667 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +56.5195 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

3-00 NEWTON ABBOT

Wrong again on Sunday and the September hoodoo is seriously around! Time to change my methods. Done it before in September although my instinct is to shut the satchel for a month. Especially when I’m affecting the market as well! 

Tempted on Monday to go hunch and lay all Gordon Elliot’s short priced favs at Perth as his stable is seriously out of kilter. Can’t find any other reason why Carrie Des Champs might not win the first. Just think he won’t.

In the end however, my tried and trusted is difficult to let go of and I stick instead with that which has let me down last two days. The penalised improver who is way too short. That’s Black Anthem here. Begging to be laid. This one wins I seriously do consider shutting the satchel for a while.

Two I like against it are both well treated. Market Road for Evan Williams pops up when least expected and has Adam Wedge booked after the stable did have its winner at Fontwell. Just not Voodoo Doll! My other fancy would be Mr Satco who would need to come back to form from 5 years ago but has an interesting jockey booking. Note him at silly prices on Betfair!

Recommendations:

0.5pt LAY on BLACK ANTHEM (around 1.7 or shorter : no greater than 1.9)

0.1pt BACK on MARKET ROAD 

0.05pt BACK on MR SATCO

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 154/235 = 65.53% :   BACKS: 44/159 = 27.67%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. Transferred now to starting bank for SHORTLIST SYSTEM PERMED ACCA BET which will start sometime this month and has an introduction and example at

FONTWELL on Sunday September 8th & Newton Abbot on Monday September 9th outlined below: The advice is watch only at this stage.

Apologies for not checking that the Betfair single stake Multiple on the Exchange bet still existed. After April 2013, we always expected it to be a withdrawn entity but it was still running last I looked. Only recently seems to have been withdrawn. Takes the gloss off my plan somewhat. Was a really unique bet but does look like it eventually got exposed as a loss leader for the sportsbook moving to Betfair Corporation. That leaves us with the Tote Jackpot and Quadpot and/or the Placepot. This will only be chosen as a way to play on days with competitive fields which may be the case in general anyways. I am busy in rethink mode. Meanwhile another example to keep an eye on Monday after Sunday’s effort hardly covered itself in glory (but did end rather well picking the last three winners!).

A couple of you have also flagged up the possibility that playing via fixed odds bookmakers sites is not now an option for you. Does that also include the Tote? If the bet is not a possibility for the majority it may well be rethink time and the challenge to me is to produce single selection accas. Might be persevering with Staggered Accas after all! I haven’t gone off them as a concept to be played through the exchanges. Just got a bit frustrated that I wasn’t getting one past the third or fourth leg stage. Can try harder!!  

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 9/9/19 at Newton Abbot:

2-25 Rococo River – Jacamar – Bathiva

3-00 Black Anthem – Market Road – Mr Satco

3-30 Theatrebar – Time for Ben

4-00 Capitoul – Vancouver

4-30 Royals & Rebels – Midnight Magic – Game Line

5-05 Sizing Tara – Chance It

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 8/9/19 at Fontwell:

2-10*  SILK RUN (4th)

2-40* GLUTNFORPUNISHMENT (3rd)

3-15 NO NO CARDINAL (3rd) – THOMAS BLOSSOM (2nd)

3-45 CONSTANCIO (3rd) – VOODOO DOLL (5th)

4-20 TWASN’T THE PLAN (3rd) – ARCHIMENTO (1st)

4-50 DOWNLOADTHEAPP (1st) – INVINCIBLE DON (2nd) – HARDTOROCK (NR)

5-20*SHANTOU SUNSET (1st) 

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Doncaster (Sep 13) & Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Longchamp (Oct 6) &Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 14) & Newbury (Sep 21)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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