BOZmail 9th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

STOP PRESS: With no UK jump racing on THURSDAY and FRIDAY, The BOZmail takes a two day cessation break to recharge the batteries. Back for Fontwell on Saturday. There is Custard The Dragon to watch out for at Haydock on Thursday and remember to hedge your tennis portfolio bets if you get offered preferential odds. Or let them ride now! The portfolio is greened. We can do worse than just watch and shout for our outsiders! Back at the weekend. BOZ.

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 9th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +14.9627 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.7744 points (+4.7744 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.1748 points (+11.1738 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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US OPEN report DAY EIGHT:

Fair play to Serena. She looked in trouble at 2-0 in the third and I did my hedge on Sakkari there. Found some reserves from somewhere and out toughed a player very much in her mould in Sakkari who hits it as hard as anyone on the tour at the moment. Close call but Serena goes through and looks set to have a right crack at that record breaking slam win. She really is extraordinary on that issue of levelling up a back score deficit! Still not lost it and a fool to doubt her ever!

Took my hedge on Pironkova at 32.0 as the news of Serena’s victory came through. Still can’t see the Bulgarian getting past the queen however she ends up against Cornet. Set up as I write but 2-4 down second set….. And lost it on a tie-break making some poor errors with the pace off the ball. Also second best in the long ground stroke rallies that have epitomised the match. Pironkova might have reached her watermark here. Does look tired. Both players playing with heavy leg strapping.

Mammoth effort by the Bulgarian to go through which keeps us in with some decent hedging potential in the portfolio. She found her big serve again third set which had deserted her in the second. Worn out just watching it me!

And then the bubble finally burst in the late matches with my banker ending 10/11 as Kenin failed to master an on fire Mertens. Muchova also failed to convert a 7-5 first set lead against Azarenka although we did thus get chance to hedge her allowing for some further possibility in the portfolio.

Hey ho. Thus ends the match betting and it was a decent run. Now just to roar on our unlikely outsiders in the portfolio! One to add into that. Putintseva @ 70.0 which then gives us all three longshots in the final eight and a consolation prize on each of the big guns. And looking at it now, although all things are always possible in women’s tennis, I think I like Putintseva’s QF chance the best. She hasn’t got to play either Osaka nor Serena! So I wouldn’t have her as outsider of eight! The 70.0 is value!

1st quarter winner: Yulia Putintseva @ 6.4  Second best: Angelique Kerber @ 4.5

2nd quarter winner: Shelby Rogers @ 10.5 Second best: Naomi Osaka @ 2.32

3rd quarter winner: Maria Sakkari @ 4.6 Second best: Serena Williams @ 1.84

4th quarter winner: Karolina Muchova @ 6.8 Second best: Sofia Kenin @ 3.75   

0.001pt single bet costing just 10p! LOST

OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

1pt LAY on NAOMI OSAKA @ 5.4 – 2 x 0.3pt hedges taken @ 7.0 & 11.0  (+0.45)

0.5pt LAY on PETRA KVITOVA @ 12.0 -0.3pt hedge @ 15.0 & 0.1pt @ 14.0 – Eliminated

0.1pt BACK on SHELBY ROGERS @ 110.0 – 0.05pt hedge @ 75.0 & 0.05pt @ 34  (+6.0)

0.1pt BACK on MADISON BRENGLE @ 200.0 -0.1pt hedge @ 170.0 – Eliminated

0.05pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK @ 70.0 – 0.05pt hedge taken @ 60.0  – Eliminated

0.05pt BACK on TSVETANA PIRONKOVA @ 100.0 – 0.05pt hedge @ 32.0   (+3.95)

0.05pt BACK on MARIA SAKKARI @ 30.0 – 0.05pt hedge @ 26.0 – Eliminated

0.05pt BACK on KAROLINA MUCHOVA @ 42.0 – 0.05pt hedge @ 32.0 – Eliminated

0.05pt BACK on YULIA PUTINTSEVA @ 70.0 (+3.95)

REST OF THE FIELD    (+0.45)

 4th ROUND MATCH BET ACCAS – SUNDAY & MONDAY:

Naomi Osaka to beat Annet Kontaveit @ 1.54 – WON

Sofia Kenin to beat Elise Mertens @ 1.86  : 0.1pt DOUBLE – LOST

Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Alize Cornet @ 1.98 : 0.1pt TREBLE – WON

Maria Sakkari to beat Serena Williams @ 2.8 : 0.05pt FOUR TIMER – LOST

Total Stake Spend of : 0.25pt – LOST

US OPEN TRADES: +0.3213 points

US OPEN ACCAS: +0.6075 points

US OPEN TOURNAMENT SCORE AFTER ROUND THREE: +0.9288 points

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 76/107 = 71.02%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

3-05 UTTOXETER

This is not a gimme for Longhouse Sale as he has stamina to prove and a couple of decent rivals getting weight in Ballyhome and the Butcher Said but he was mighty impressive LTO and I have this one down as this year’s Maire Banrigh for the Skelton yard.Such a smooth looking jumper. And stamina is in the pedigree so there is just cause to think he’ll stay.

Recommendation:

0.15pt BACK on LONGHOUSE SALE (around 3.3 or best price you can get)

4-25 NEWTON ABBOT (Tuesday LIM not yet run)

Pretty disappointed in the Newton Abbot card after all but one for us to play – another unlike LIM race but to follow horse Little Jessture does look just that. Worth following.

Effectively escapes the penalty for the win over Beholden – which was a penalty affected result – but the times were good and the mare is up against a trio of PTP recruits who are difficult to appraise but all look longterm NH stamina sorts so I’d be hopeful Little Jessture can show that turn of foot again and see them off. No tissue as I write so prices are vague and I’m not wild about a lay anyways so I’ll leave that to you if you think there is a fav to take on against her. For me, just a small play on the to follow horse from a stable scoring well on the horses running to form indices.

Recommendation:

0.1pt BACK on LITTLE JESSTURE (around 4.0 or best you can get)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon – Entered for Haydock (Sep 10)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE at UTTOXETER Wednesday:

4-10 SIROBBIE @ 9/4 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are on offer.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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