BOZmail – 9th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 9th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.2887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.536 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY 

1-15 LUDLOW

The times were the thing at Chelmsford and with the Johnston horse also correctly assessed as on the wind down, we got a straightforward success. Unfortunately, the market agreed with me so not easy to get the price to pitch us back in the black for October as I planned when I wrote. If you upped stakes with confidence when you saw the market, good on you and you’re getting the game. The sheet sticks to what it published so we still have a bit more to do to get out of the red. Remember in future if you are new to this that my comments on when I like a race I really do. Especially for this winter on the all weather and especially if it only has three runners in it! I do have a good record with them!

Back to the jumps for Wednesday. All three of my shortlisted races at Ludlow are blighted with the markets being accurately tissued which starts to happen about now every year and I thus stop posting my picks so early and start working on the pick a bit later when all the tissues are out. Hasn’t helped with this one though as all three of my possible backs have ended up favourite so rather than choose which of them I’m hottest on (all three in truth!), I’ll instead stick to my prior race reads which picked the likely false fav lays – all of which are now  second fav or bigger. The one still layable however is Beau Sancy in this Handicap chase. Still in the grip of the handicapper and 17lb above his winning mark and from a stable running at only 29% on the form in running table, he looks to have a serious job on in a competitive field of which my fancy had been Gone Platinum from the 100% running stable of David Rees.

Because of prices and bank management position after yesterday, I stay cautious and just go small lay Beau Sancy at around 11/4 or hopefully less to bring us officially back into the balck for the month. Might be a need to place bets early again to secure lowest price.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on BEAU SANCY ( around 3.75 or preferably less : No greater than 4.4)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 169/259 = 65.25% :   BACKS: 49/175 = 28.0%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus

Tokaramore

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricastfor a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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