BOZmail 9th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

FRIDAY OCTOBER 9th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +28.6581 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.9851 points (+4.9851 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 32.8585 points (+24.8585 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 85/121 = 70.24%  Backs : 22/73 = 30.13%

1-35 YORK

There’s always a losing streak lurking behind every corner and you can guarantee he’ll always show his face when you least want him to. Maybe some of you missed the past couple of days because of the price drifts on the favs but not me I’m afraid. I copped both and am going to have to go into recovery mode again. Gone in on the stake expanse too soon. Said I should have given it a week until the tennis was finished but got lulled in again. One mistake after another this year. Most pertinent was the price drift on Mouseinthehouse – meant that he went 11/1 in running when not looking like going past Cesar Collonges. So an ideal trade play. But his jump at the last belied any ring rustiness. Am seriously going to have to revise my methods I think if this year carries on like this. All the profit coming from trades. Got to be telling me something.

But I cling on to past scores for now and try to claw back. Stakes will drop down again until I find the winners again. Just how it has to be.

And bugger all over the jumps to go at again on Friday although I have had a good look at Legends Ryde at Chepstow. Very speculative up against the Nicholls bull that is McFabulous who’ll be odds on but should win. It will be a watch race for me going forward because Legends Ryde is on the Lady Bowes formline and has shown smidgeons of class. Up in it here but if he shows up well, he’ll make the to follow list.

And so I use an LIM tactic I’ve hardly used at all this year because of what has been going on. The unreliable flat and all that. Here is one to take on mainly because of the price. Highland Chief came up for us shortlist followers at Ascot last time he ran in the soft. At a whopping price. Been in some top races since including the Derby and behind Mogul in France. But gets his ground again now. And the soft at York does take some going through.

Logician could of course be in another league. Unbeaten so far. And proven over further which is the Daylami in him rather than the Frankel perhaps. But never gone on soft. And the soft at York does take some going through. He could do it of course. No science in this bet. Just the look of things. And trying something different. Frankie doesn’t bother to come. And he’s 1/4 and maybe shorter. And we do have one to beat him if he doesn’t go on the ground on which he is unproven. Two possibly because Euchen Glen also likes getting a toe in.

So we take a punt. Might stink of desperation but from where I’m sitting its been a desperate year unless you’ve traded. 50% of me still resisting. Where are you at?

Recommendation:

0.5pts LAY on LOGICIAN (around 1.25)

0.05pt BACK on HIGHLAND CHIEF (around 8.0)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (THE FINAL)

Kvitova was poor in her semi and didn’t test Kenin much and my take on the final is that if it comes down to tennis, the Polish power game will be too much for the street fighting American. Kenin is gutsy however and has both a fine tennis intelligence and an excellent consistency at making the lines and keeping the ball in play. That’s when she has time on it however. If Swiatek takes that time away I’m guessing the Pole’s big hitting fore and backhand will go through Kenin the same way it went through Halep and the two qualifiers just dismissed. Kenin’s chance of course comes in whether Swiatek gets mentally affected or nervous of the occasion. It commonly gets newbies and Kenin has the advantage of having already handled a slam final. Her maiden one which she won. Her head is pretty solid. Swiatek has seemed to be here so far. Working out what needs to be done. She has gotten nervy in the past however in early days on the adult tour. Will that come back to get her here? In front of the tiny crowd? I’d be surprised but it is certainly Kenin’s main chance.

If you want to do some levelling up of the profit position, I leave that decision to you. I’m tempted by 0.4pt Lay on Iga at 1.72 to reduce her winnings by 0.2752points but I haven’t done it yet. Because of the losing LIM patch I’ve hit, I’m keen for the tennis boost to be as big as poss. I may even trade some of my Kenin position on any advantageous Swiatek prices that emerge in play if the Pole does go behind or have an early wobble. Just 0.1pt or 0.2pt point I would imagine. I think I prefer that option to levelling up a bit now. My faith and my hope is in Iga. She looks every bit the real deal if her head holds and she does have a 1-0 back score over Kenin from Junior days here at the Garros. Could be a good final though. Good Luck whichever way you play.

Outrights Portfolio Position:

Iga Swiatek  (+1.805)

Sofia Kenin (+0.605) 

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.4pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.3121pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

2-25 Newmarket – Alicestar @ 16/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Watch and see race really going on this ground for the first time. Very much a trade recommendation. Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when offered preferential odds.

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10) & The Curragh (Oct 11)

Longhouse Sale – Entered for Chepstow (Oct 10)

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

Wenceslaus

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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