BOZmail – 9th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 9th  2019 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

*******************************************

2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

**************************************************

THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.6057 points

*************************************************

BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.668 points

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-15 AINTREE 

Well I got the top two right at Fontwell and the market followed me to keep the run going. Good job I did though as there was no LIM cover there! Yeats Baby and No No Juliet hated the ground and for some of the race, I thought perhaps that question mark re Sensulano on soft was gonna be relevant but I think the all weather stretch did help and Midnight Tune again didn’t jump as well as he might have. Convincing win in the end and a good day at the office with Maire Banrigh also obliging. Got more and more confident about her through the morning as the market vibes were strong and held my hedging nerve until the last furlong when I expected the champ to put in his run on the flat but our girl hung tough after jumping best and is a serious one to keep on our list again. Said list is building up nicely now with Ribble Valley joining in after a canter in at Hexham. Very very impressed with the bumper form last year and interested to hear Brian Hughes say he thinks Richards has found one. So do I! November and the NH season is warming up nicely. Kid Commando also added in after his romp in the last at Fontwell.

The ten from ten lays is entrusted to a go on Top Notch who is a horse I know well and has been a to follow in the past and not one I would expect to have been entered here with a view of winning despite his class. As a hurdler, he’s been aimed at the stayers and not done that great at that. All his best work is over fences and to me on paper he looks only level with Vision Des Flos in the genre and over the trip (soft ground also not his best surface over hurdles as it blunts his speed) making the Tizzard horse the value. Roksana is a mare with infinitely more hurdle speed and better form in the book and has to have an off day to lose. All pointing to the LIM play being a simple lay on Top Notch. Not as strong a play as Friday so a slight stake down but still some profit re-investment percentage included. Fingers crossed for the ten out of ten.

Recommendation: 

0.25pt LAY on TOP NOTCH (around 3.0 or lower : No greater than 3.3)

***************************************************

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 189/285 = 66.31% :   BACKS: 52/190 = 27.36%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

*****************************************************  

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

*******************************************************

WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC 

Commodore Barry 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper – Entered for Kempton (Nov 11)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Ballymoy – Entered for Carlisle (Nov 11)

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh – Entered for Bangor(Nov 13)

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes – Entered for Ayr (Nov 13)

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for Haydock (Nov 23),King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Lingfield (Nov 12)& Haydock (Nov 23)

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier

Virginia Chick – Entered for Ffos Las (Nov 10),Stratford(Nov 11)&Exeter(Nov 13)

Ribble Valley

Kid Commando

*****************************************************

HORSE TO FOLLOW on FRIDAY:

1-50 WARWICK – MAIRE BANRIGH – 0.5pt BACK – WON

(Backed @ 3.2 : Hedged in running @ 1.24 – P/L+ 0.98)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

12-40 WINCANTON – FLIC OU VOYOU – 0.25pt BACK

Less keen on this double header than I was on Friday’s as Tizzard will have the line on Flic after LTO and his in this has serious top form behind one of our to follows in Thyme Hill. That might be top notch form and Nicholls’ horse has some improving to do up in class if so. It is Wincanton though and that improvement might be there so at half stake, usual advice. Back at best price you can get and hedge at preferential before the off or in running keeping eye on market for clues. A definite trade race for me this though on paper.Much more so than yesterday’s.

PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitabilty generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *