BOZmail 9th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

MONDAY NOVEMBER 9th  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +44.3546 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 28.9293 points (+8.9293 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 45.1258 points (+37.1258 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.4485 points (-0.5515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 104/142 = 73.23%  Backs : 28/91 = 30.76%

3-20 KEMPTON

OK, so Hitman goes on the list for that but that was a race about jockeys more so than horses. Hitman did make his mistake – and a fairly bad one two out – and I thought for a moment we were going to get a winner as the only finisher! The reason Mack the Man was so far back however was because unlike bright and breezy champion jockey elect Harry Cobden, who concentrates and is ready to race, dozy duck Robbie Power gets caught napping at the start gifting 10 lengths to a horse like Hitman! Probably still wouldn’t have won but at least he would have been in a race. Of course it is possible Robbie’s instructions were to give the Welsh raider an easy introduction and get him round safe. Reason again I trade and play LIM! You can see from the strike rates above that my approach to betting horses changed once we could bet on favourites to lose rather than the heartache of picking a winner only for the jockey to fall asleep at the start! Afraid Mr Power does not go on my list for that!

Unbeaten start to November continues however and keen to see if I can keep that going on Monday.

To Follow horse Oscar Rose gets a loyal vote here although conceding topweight will be no gimme and has penalty for LTO win to concede also. I have Dame du Soir and Nightfly as dangers on my figures although I do think ultimately that Oscar Rose has more class. Those runs behind Leoncavallo and Fanzio continue to read well. The lay is a bit of a long price and so is only a token lay to cover stake but I think Jubilympics will have a lot on the plate to win this up in class and also carrying penalty for the win in lower grade LTO.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on JUBILYMPICS (around 4.4)

0.1pt BACK on OSCAR ROSE (around 3.3)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @Huntingdon (Nov 10) & Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9) & Hereford (Nov 10)

She’s a Rocca(heavy) – Entered @ Ayr (Nov 11)

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Newcastle (Nov 13)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14) & King George (Dec 26)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Hereford (Nov 10)

Stormy Ireland -Entered for Bangor (Nov 11)

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)

Zamani 

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on MONDAY:

2-15 KEMPTON – ENRICHISSANT @4/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are offered.

This is one of Bridgey’s potential good ones on a high mark here for the win end of last season but looked up to carrying it on seasonal debut at Plumpton only beaten by the need to blow away the cobwebs. I think he’ll go well here and I also think 4/1 is a bit mean so might be worth hanging out for better than that. I might go as I did with Defi Sacre on Saturday and hedge only half back early and hang on to some for in running late on as it won’t be a surprise to see him involved in the finish. Jockey booking and stable form figures however not the greatest so caution may also have me making sure I’m green before the off. Especially if I do get offered better than 4/1 in the early market exchanges and there is decent profit either way. That experience with dozy duck jockeying on Sunday will take a while to be forgotten!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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