BOZmail – 9th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MAY 9th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

5-15 WINCANTON

I think STD gets a Xmas card for that ride for us and breaks my May back duck in so doing. Whether he would have beat Flowery though with that right hand jump, I have my doubts. Hardly serious recovery again but I’ll take it at the moment and look for something a bit better quality for Thursday.

I came to this race initially expecting and hoping to lay Texan Nomad under his penalty but in actual fact he has a very good time when winning over course and distance so happy he’s too long to lay and we’ll have him on side. The back is Nachi Falls who is a horse I’ve followed for two years. Backed him when he won over fences at Worcester as a 33/1 shot (SP 20/1) and although I don’t expect that long a price this time, we will get some value on the exchanges with Timeform and Sporting Life calling him ‘disappointing’. He can be but that is because he is prone to breaking blood vessels (which you won’t see written around much) and actually does retain some form that saw him do an early treble over hurdles (taking a class 2 race in his stride) and enter some class races as a result. Never quite reached the heights because of those vessels which do see him drop right out on a bad day. Time before last at Taunton however was a back to form run following a wind op and you can excuse his next run which came too soon after (or vessels played up). Had his month off and is now very well handicapped on old form and from a stable in good nick. In my view the class horse in a race where all horses have their doubts and so he’s a value and an optimistic punt.

The lay to pay is on favourite Petite Jack who is 6/4 in some tissues and well worth a lay at that price with Hattaab,Texan Nomad and Mercer’s Troop all capable of being competitive if it proves their day and negatives/doubts can be overcome. Petite Jack would win on flat form where he has black type success but his hurdling form for Neil King has been vastly inferior looking far from in love with the game and beaten a distance each time. Hurdling very much his doubt/negative. He does get Bryony Frost on board this time and if her sensitive touch gets him purring, well maybe, but at likely less than 2/1, he remains a lay for me with the King yard also scoring low on the running to form table at present. Will be interesting if Frost has him make the pace as is often her want as he hasn’t been ridden that way before but be on the watch if that occurs and she looks likely to get a tune. Nachi Falls doesn’t do anything particularly quickly but has got class and very interestingly, his debut win at Newton Abbot, when I first picked him up to follow, saw a certain Petite Jack in same race – his only early hurdle attempt – finishing last. Not really colatertal form but a good omen perhaps.

Going a bit stronger on this than of late and got a second leg lay for the staggered acca as well which you’ll find below.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on PETITE JACK (around 3.0 but try for lower ; no greater than 3.3)

0.15pt BACK on NACHI FALLS (around 6.5 but could appear much longer on the exchanges)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 98/141 = 69.50% :   BACKS: 23/91 = 25.27%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat – Entered for Thirsk (May 11)

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Lingfield Derby Trial(May 11) Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby

Sir Dragonet

Last Derby winner I tipped up was RuleroftheWorld at 25/1 in 2013 and Sir Dragonet goes the same route and looked every bit as good in his Chester Vase success. If you like favourites, he’s your man. Interesting to compare his times with that of my outsider Hiroshima! Hiroshima’s time at Southwell – a decidedly slow track – was 5 seconds over standard. Sir Dragonet was nearly nine seconds over standard at Chester – a decidedly quick track. Sir Dragonet obviously gets the O’Brien training upcurve factor but you can be encouraged by Hiroshima’s performance in comparison. He remains an interesting dark horse ridden by Gerald Mosse on his debut which I consider another interesting pointer. Out at Lingfield Saturday in the Derby trial which should tell us more.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.544 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 2)

6-00 CHELMSFORD – LAY on MARGUB

I’ve placed my lay on @ 2.76 with a stake of 0.31 to leave me a liability of 0.544 which is my profit from leg one and leaves me with 10 points still in my bank if he wins. You will have to do your own computations depending what you price you got last time to achieve the requisite ‘free bet’ liability. Get that calculator out.

It was a very close call for this one as today’s LIM as Margub does hail from the white hot Tregonning yard but has a 10lb penalty to shoulder and times/form only equivalent to Raucous and Breathless Times and inferior to Victory Wave – who would be my idea of winner from the also white hot Bun Suroor yard –  and Masham Star who is well travelled but would be the form horse in the race on his best show. Actually a very open affair which is just what you want in a lay bet and that 10lb hike is a big ask for Margub who will have to be a serious improving sort to carry it and is not even third fav in my market. Victory Wave has a much superior course and distance effort to his name and is poised to pick up where he left off following a winter in Meydan.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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