BOZmail – 9th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY MARCH 9th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.8786 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.7991 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Monday play

3-55 STRATFORD

You did have to get in early to make a lay on Sunday and I’ve been listening to the criticism regarding relying on early bookmaker tissues in making my selections (the main critic has been me! – I didn’t get on this time either!!) and do agree that it will be prudent to publish a bit later again for a while. Has happened before when bookmakers collectively drag their heels getting early prices out and usually my announcing that I am going to wait until the most of them have published gets them off their arses! I do have a couple of colleagues still in that sphere. It was a job I used to do myself many moons ago. Obviously on this side of the fence now and working mainly on the exchanges, we still rely on that market compilation side of the bookmaking business to help shape early markets in particular and get them moving.

And I’m very much in the camp of getting some money on early most days in case there is any kind of stable run on a horse so balancing when I get out as soon as they publish is a factor for me all the time. I fit my life around that. Told the missus I will be down later for my dinner for a week or two! Let’s hope I get the trade back to early price publication again soon. They argue it is always this time of year that they dally because of the doubts about runners and the actual happening of meetings affected by turbulent weather. And they do have a point there.

So slightly later publication of the BOZmail for a while and until further notice. Might average in around 7pm for a while.

Meanwhile we stand now on the cusp of the glory that is Cheltenham Festival week and the BOZmail moves into that mode from tomorrow. You probably heard that Verdana Blue has been withdrawn from the Champion Hurdle so the weather once more works against us. Forecast to sluice it down in the Cheltenham area tomorrow.

And so one off the subs bench set to make it into the Cheltenham Yankee now. More on the BOZmail festival strategy tomorrow. All I will say at this point is never forget what my old man said about the Festival. A chance to lose your vest as well as your shirt! Love it as we do, still the toughest of all the punting tests and whatever you may fancy, you can guarantee it has six or seven other equally decent sorts to conquer in order to register a win. Those new to the Bozmail won’t be surprised to hear the BOZ plays it cautiously and as we proved last year, seeks to implement BOZmail rule number one in particular, looking to the away meetings for the LIM value of the year whilst the industry’s eyes are averted! Who can forget The Jugopolist at 50/1 last year? Cheltenham will largely be a case of trading the To Follow stable runners and a small daily acca for the BOZmail. Great stress free fun watching when you play like that, keeping your vest securely round your torso! Stay safe!

And so on to the Monday LIM in the lull before the storm. There was a time when this was always the day you sorted out the Irish raider at Stratford. An old tradition that Paddy O’Flaherty and Seamus Heaney’s brother would bring a ringer for the meeting to fleece the English bookies and pay for the week’s sport further down the road. Doesn’t happen so much now (They are slow to it but the English do eventually get there to defending themselves when the mick is being taken!!) but you’ll see a few runners in Warwickshire tomorrow from the Emerald Isle and I shall be keeping a beady eye on those in case.

But it’s to the Novice Chase we go for LIM. And taking on Tidal Flow. He’s a big stuffy horse and a properly built chaser coming in down in class from a handicap LTO in which he ran commendably without setting the world on fire. Doesn’t do anything quickly and although sure to get a champion’s ride, he can be taken on by Moonlighter who ran behind Arkle fancy Rouge Vif and Skelton’s Nube Negra LTO and doesn’t meet anything that tasty here. Stepping up in trip but pedigree says that is required but doesn’t lack toe and if Scudamore gets him popping his fences ok, I expect to him to have enough speed to give the fav a race. Times are hard to compare because of Moonlighter’s experience over shorter distance but at odds on if you you get it, Tidal Flow is an oppose. Senior Citizen looks a bit outclassed (although he ran very impressively ghosting into things winning LTO in a weaker race at Fakenham) but Financier perhaps value as the outsider if the wind op that saw him to victory LTO keeps on working for him. He has a bit to find on the front two but wind ops do improve form and this is his second run after when they do say most benefit is seen.   

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on TIDAL FLOW (around 2.0 but lower if you can get it)

0.05pt BACK on MOONLIGHTER

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 18/29 = 62.06%  Backs: 7/21 = 33.33%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

8th:     +0.22 (+0.529) Lay not matched : Back @ 3.2

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 12 & 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ – Entered for the Champion Bumper (Mar 12)

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave 

It’safreebee – Entered for Fakenham (Mar 13)

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

Ellens Way

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1 – NON RUNNER

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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