BOZmail – 9th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY JUNE 9th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-55 PERTH

If you spend long enough looking into the abyss, the abyss will start looking into you.Wise words to a black country boy from old Friedrich and little doubt about his two most famous ones. That which does not kill you makes you stronger and no-one can construct the bridge over your stream of life but you.

And Nietzsche’s form is talking to me in this as he comes to chasing for the first time in public. Just a little horse but Perth a good place to start and on hurdles form at Cheltenham where he had Xmas hurdle winner Verdana Blue behind, he’ll munch this. I was at Sedgefield to watch Caius Marcius’ transition to chasing however and that was mighty impressive. He has stamp of a chaser all over him so can be expected to do better against the tiddler that is Nietzsche here than the 16th place he managed in that Cheltenham hurdle. Even so, 33 lengths is a lot to make up on jumps alone and Ellison’s horse is undoubtedly the speed angle. He’s also the betting value at 3/1 and time for a BOZmail stake up methinks.

Elliot’s horse Global Jackpot is a floater and he does well at Perth and with the champ on board but that just helps make our market here. Held on times by the Richards horse and I was up near Greystoke for my holiday and they talked in the pubs about CM as an exciting chasing prospect for the yard. If he drifts in price, I might have a tickle on him aswell. I definitely want him on my side however excited I am by Nietzsche’s chance here.

Definite day for a proper bet after Saturday’s tickle was sabotaged by withdrawals and the seriously boggy ground. A race where whoever was in front after a furlong won! Not the ground for accelerating in. May be a factor on Sunday too of course although having come South again, far more rain around Cartmel than there had been up on the Scottish border.

Recommendation:

0.45pt LAY on GLOBAL JACKPOT ( around 2.7 : no greater than 3.0)

0.25pt BACK on NIETZSCHE (4.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 107/160 = 66.87% :   BACKS: 27/102 = 26.47%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

TRADE FOR SUNDAY JUNE 9th:

4-25 PERTH – GET OUT THE GATE – 0.5pt BACK @ 15/2 or better

Was 9/1 on tissue release but I think they’ll back this talented novice on handicap debut in the Scottish race of the day so worth getting on early and trading in running for a decent profit. Each way in my thinking as a fixed odds tip and Cresswell Legend and a couple of others do hold on the book. Trading could allow for better profits than each way though and victory not out of the question – so impressive has he been in first two outings, battling to beat another Bailey stable star and then trouncing a decent Sherwood recruit in a terrific time here over course and distance. Softer ground a slight unknown or I might have been starting another staggered acca. But seriously exciting horse for the future for sure. Enjoy the ride, use a bit of the trading plus you got on Barty – a winner I could not possibly have tipped before the off!!.Boz the tipster is however definitely back from his hols today!

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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