BOZmail 9th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JUNE 9th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.645 points (-0.355 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = +0.085 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = -0.27 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 0/1 = 0%  Backs : 0/1 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

4-15 HAYDOCK

Well it was hardly the finest tip I ever gave but the first sign of encouragement in a while that the winners are not far away again now. If you’ve been following my number one system and saw Grisons do his dump before the off, you also backed the winner! (9/11 for me now since French Racing restarted) King Robert looked to have his chance and the race read was accurate in having him ahead of Something Lucky. Noticeable however that the market was pretty sharp and those who have been saying that I might have missed a trick in that department over the past seven days may have a point. You had to move sharp to get 5.0 for your lay on Something Lucky (the 3.5 he was when I wrote never materialised) although plenty of 6.0 on King Robert so still an ok LIM play. And a winning one which is what matters most. Not had many of those in the past ten weeks.

My rigid adherence to playing small fields with LIM is a system rule. For many reasons not least the fact that dabbling in larger fields increases the liability price required by taking on favs (in general) and thus affects the profitability long term. And the absence of much small field choice in the comeback from lockdown has been a concern as the BHA have been making noises that bookmakers like to hear. Namely that meetings with small fields will be discouraged in the effort to promote racing’s  new future in the UK. That discrimination has come shockingly into play with the announcement that our shortlist premier meeting scheduled for Bath on June 11th is now moved to Lingfield where it will “attract larger fields”. This is because Bath does go firm during dry spells and that does lead to smaller entry numbers. But that of course is what both LIM and the shortlist want. The Boz’s preferences again under the spotlight. We’ll see if the trend continues and obviously LIM will have to be looked at if so. Meanwhile the shortlist now has to wait for June 16th and Royal Ascot for its next action. Somehow doubt that is going to suffer from small entry!

In the meantime I am prepared to relax the maximum number of runners for LIM rule purely to get us going again (as I know some BOZmailers including me do want). I do need the practice to encourage the winning streak to revisit and with an encouraging race read under my belt at last, I’ll come back into the ring for a spell now. The daily rhythm is important. Stop/start or periods of suspension always cause disruption.

Those not voting for that do have the right to abstain of course and I know many of you will. The overriding feeling is that just like if you don’t need to leave home you shouldn’t, if you don’t need to bet at the moment you shouldn’t either. A lot of short price favs have been getting beat as some of you have pointed out but there is also a lot winning especially now that the market is sharpening. They are still hard work to predict in advance which is which at the moment. At least I’m finding it so.

So even for those prepared to risk bank and come with me into this spell, stakes are advised to be kept to a minimum. That’s half of normal LIM minimum’s at least. I’m still going to be working to not risk going too far into bank and my first target is to claw back that which I lost on Ghaiyyath gradually. No going gung ho chasing that loss in the current climate.

On to the chosen race. 7 runner affair and early season Fillies handicap so still a lot of guesswork involved. How much has Beautiful Illusion improved since last seen? Up in grade so needs a tad of improvement mainly against outsider Merryweather who does have to carry penalties for winning three on the bounce but whose 6th in a Listed at Deauville LTO reads quite well. Got hampered in the final stages there and would have finished closer and gets Oisin Murphy in the saddle this time which is a bonus.A front runner too and that is no bad thing in the long straight at Haydock. The value back to my eyes in this although you can make a case for all with Virgin Snow looking the one most likely to show the required improvement up in grade. LTO form for her franked at the weekend when Run Wild won a black type race. Finery,Salsada and Made in Italy all won LTO and none can be discounted with Finery getting 9lb off Beautiful Illusion and over a stone off Merryweather. The big guesswork factor in this is who is likely to appreciate the move to turf most. Form in general all weather biased so you are really sticking a pin in on that one. Jockey bookings worth looking at right now with Merryweather booking already mentioned and Ben Curtis booked for Finery rather than Beautiful Illusion who he has ridden in both wins so far. That can be interpreted either way with perhaps Doyle coming in now as Beautiful Illusion moves to her serious business. Or Curtis knowing in his mind which of the two he prefers?

All leads to a fascinating race. Good LIM fare. Absolute rock bottom minimum stakes however in the current climate!

Good luck to all who choose to play.

Recommendations;

0.1pt LAY on BEAUTIFUL ILLUSION (around 2.7 at time of writing and ok up to 3.0)

0.05pt BACK on MERRYWEATHER (around 12.0)

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Martineo

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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