BOZmail – 9th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JULY 9th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +9.3313 points

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 Wimbledon Quarter-Final previews:

The Boz feeling it in his water is the same as when horses wink at him! Especially when he doesn’t back it up with a tip (see rule six). Feel a bit of a twit with Pliskova also out and Kvitova on the rack in the third set as I write (out).Fortunately I did as I said that I would and traded on the Barty and Halep games and came out ahead in both to soften the blow a tad. Not much left for me now portfolio wise other than hedging Serena and reducing damage! Will however see the daily review out and here are my quarter final thoughts for what they are worth.

SHUAI ZHANG(9/2) v SIMONA HALEP(1/5)

My calamitous day meant the draw just fell into Serena’s lap but it is not all over by any means. I have a -2.50 point liability on the queen (see below) thanks to my prudence at hedging when she lost first set to Juvan in round two and whilst not great that isn’t irretrievable with +0.9 already showing on match bets and a few good bets to play here in the quarter finals and of course possible chances to hedge further on Serena if she struggles against Riske or Konta who are both still playing grass games that could challenge an off song Serena. There is also the final. Who will be facing her in that is now very hard to predict!

Halep would give her a game but Halep is another of our potential shock exits here. She stands 1-2 down on the head to head v Zhang and whilst neither is particularly grass oriented, both are hard courters and Zhang wins there on back score. Haven’t played for a while and Halep has improved but always got to be vulnerable on grass and I’d be hopeful for Zhang who has never really shone on grass before but like Riske, can cause upsets. She has played spectacularly well so far here in beating Garcia,Wickmayer,Wozniacki & Yastremska – all decent grass courters and so must have hope against Halep if she handles the Romanian’s hardball. 9/2 is huge. Has to be taken. 

KAROLINA MUCHOVA(33/16) v ELINA SVITOLINA(8/15)

I was immensely impressed with Muchova’s grass game. It was no fluke win over Pliskova albeit that it was a long hard match that may well have sapped her legs. Svitolina also no grass courter for me and although decisive against Martic was out earlier v Gasparyan and I could see this going quickly Muchova’s way so the price has to be taken again I’d say despite Svitolina’s 1-0 on hardcourt back score. Muchova has really flown in from nowhere but certainly looks to have the credentials.  

BARBORA STRYCOVA(2/1) v JOHANNA KONTA(1/2)

You saw Konta’s wobble again no doubt. But for that I might back her here but the back score again favours Strycova. 1-0 on hard court where Konta is traditionally much stronger.

Has been playing well all year though Konta and actually found myself shouting for her in the end v Kvitova (well it was only a free bet!!). You so hope she can conquer those wobbles. She sort of did here and we do need her to play well v Serena whom she walloped earlier this year. So on balance, I’ll pass on Barbora who has already done her good work for us.

SERENA WILLIAMS(3/10) v ALISON RISKE(33/10)

Can Riske do anything? They’ve surprisingly never played before on the tour. Played together in Fed Cup. Riske is so only grass it’s incredible but she won Hertogenbosch and Surbiton leading up to this so the signs were there. And my water did tell us! Never ignore the power of the water! One part of me says Serena will play through and outclass. But the fact that Riske played through Barty last two sets means not only that Serena would also have done but that Riske is in with a shout especially if she can take it to three sets. She just got stronger today as she found her game. Small chance she could pull us a hedging opportunity here. Be ready for it. Only reason I’ll play this game however. The fixed odds bet wouldn’t appeal with what Serena is now showing.

Official Quarter Finals Tips:

0.25pt BACK on SHUAI ZHANG to beat SIMONA HALEP @ 9/2

0.25pt BACK on KAROLINA MUCHOVA to beat ELINA SVITOLINA @ 33/16

  My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

My personal position is thus:

Serena Williams: 0.75pt LAY @ 7.8 : 0.2pt BACK @ 17.0 = Current P/L :  -2.50

Rest of The Field: + 0.75 points – 0.6 points – 0.2 points = Current P/L:  -0.05

Not inclined to back any of the seven in the outrights now. Will only come back in if Serena exits. Accepted what happened today. Always a risk taking her on but not over yet as I say. Will have finger on the hedging button from hereon in and attempt just a small minus overall.

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

2-45 PONTEFRACT

Shame about Finalshot’s defection taking the better price away from Pedro but if you got in quick again, wasn’t so bad and the weight differential really did bog down Boomarang and a good time for the LIM to go on a Back win streak. Am working hard this week now to keep that going.Tennis starts to come second best again from now on until Xmas! (rarely go out too hard on the US Open).

This sprint at Pontefract is my choice and looks at the mercy of Three Card Trick who comes down in class, has the jockey and the draw and is the more fancied of the front two in the betting. It is a tight handicap however and Packington Lane as the pacemaker is far from out of it and represents back value at 3/1 especially as Three Card Trick has been finding it hard to win.

Clear lay in the race for me is Major Blue who is held on times (only marginally mind) and ratings and looks likely to prefer six furlongs. Also didn’t do well stepping up in class LTO.

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on MAJOR BLUE (around 2.75 ; no greater than 3.0)

0.15pt BACK on PACKINGTON LANE

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 123/183 = 67.21% :   BACKS: 35/122 = 28.68%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 14: (LEG 1)

Just cannot seem to get this bet going! Not given up yet and not losing!

Will shout when the next opportunity emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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