BOZmail 9th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY JULY 9th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.1747 points (+0.1747 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.219 points (+5.219 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.485 points (-0.515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +4.4097 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +8.6973 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 16/23 = 69.56%  Backs : 2/9 = 22.22%

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LESS IS MORE: 

SUSPENDED ON THE FLAT

The practice LIM on Wednesday yielded a first picked winner(second fav) since I don’t know when on the flat and fav duly beaten which times nicely with my returning feeling that the flat is starting to get there now.

Likewise there is a Handicap Chase to go for at Market Rasen on Friday with a back up LIM qualifier at the Shortlist meeting due for Bath so one of those will constitute the re-opening of the official daily LIM post lockdown. Wipe those cobwebs off your bank if you’ve been staying out! I’m starting the serious stuff again on July 10th with the hope of making it a daily occurrence again thereafter. And that’s traditional LIM based on race read rather than the trading version although I retain the latter in my armoury for any days when a suitable LIM qualifier can’t be found. 

Meanwhile some to follow trades also due Thursday(see below) and over the weekend so hopefully a nice busy spell to get the scores ticking over again.

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way -Entered for Newmarket (July 10)

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (July 11)& Doncaster (Sep 10)Curr(Sep13)

Sharp Reply – Entered for Salisbury(July 11)

Waseem Faris – Entered for Bath(July 10) & Salisbury(July 11)

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric

Check My Pulse

Ginstrelli – Entered for Market Rasen (July 10th)

Balagan 

Perle Rose

Ashutor

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Beholden

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE FOR THURSDAY:

4-20 YORK – MUKER @ 6/4  0.5pt BACK

Back at best price you can get and hedge before the off or in running as appropriate when preferential odds appear

I have ummed and arred about starting with the lay on this due to the price as it is no gimme carrying the penalty earned at Royal Ascot. No value either as a back as several cannot be ruled out against him although it is mainly an on paper and guesswork assumption that with many out on their debut.

I’ve stuck to starting with the back because we can probably expect a front running effort again and we know what else to look for! The horse owes us nothing so we can stay loyal and shout for a win again I think although I am advising taking the hedge sooner rather than later and if you get a decent back price overnight and we see a move for him before the off, I would be in favour of greening and not bothering with the in running gamble. That’s my play I think unless his back price does drift to value.

I’d want 5/2 or 11/4 I think in view of the penalty. Other than that I’m happy with a before the off trade if that is gettable.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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