BOZmail – 9th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 9th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-20 TAUNTON

Less is More bet was first designed on the premise of as few runners as possible and never more than six so tomorrow’s 1-00 at Doncaster two horse affair is the theoretical Nirvana especially as Talkischeap looks nailed on with form behind La Bague au Roi but likely to be short priced so I’m using as a starter for the next staggered acca (see below) instead.

Also strong on this four runner Handicap Chase at Taunton to try for the seventeen consecutive lays as Still Believing comes out as clear lay on my speed figures and looks likely to be a layable price at around 2/1. Romain De Senam looks the clear class in the race coming back down into calmer waters after contesting at the top race level. Hasn’t won in a while and stepping up in trip which asks a slight question on his breeding but the Nicholls yard still in flying form and confident the boss’ll know what he is doing. Like yesterday, Still Believing is third best off a high mark that may well see him outspeeded at the business end and does look held by Fox Appeal aswell on my figures. Staying with lay only with the likely winner the fav and concentrating with conservatism as usual on a plan for the weekend where the Boz celebrates his 59th birthday on Saturday and may well be absent from writing desk at key times Friday night and Saturday morning. Have already done the to follow entries for the weekend and there are two significant runners in Waiting Patiently and Rocky’s Treasure who may be posted up as my bets for Saturday if it does transpire that I will be indisposed and LIM will be suspended for the day. More on that in next two days.

 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on STILL BELIEVING

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 31/36 = 86.11% :   BACKS: 5/21 = 23.8%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 15.00 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently * – Entered at Kempton (Jan 12) & Ascot (Jan 19)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure – Entered at Warwick (Jan 12)

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

                           RUNNER ON TUESDAY:

3-45 AYR – RIBBLE VALLEY – 0.25pt WIN – WON in the manner of a good horse

 

Was very impressive again and stays on the list. Be interesting to see where he goes next. Hope you practised getting the best price you could and widely available 6/4 last night puts the to follow section of the sheet into profit. Settled above however at Betfair SP in line with arbiter policy and back to the importance of breaking even on that score.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

 

Staggered acca number 4: (LEG 1)

1-00 DONCASTER – TALKISCHEAP – 0.5pt WIN

 

I had thought the prices for this two horse affair might be closer as Theatre Territory is an admirable mare who is consistent and has raced well in some good chases without winning one as yet. So I was going to use it as the start of an experimental lay acca. But the market agrees with me that Talkischeap is much the more likely winner as a horse with scope and excellent credentials with that form behind La Bague au Roi who is certain to come on again for the step up in distance.

Arguably Theatre Territory has run its better races over shorter and hails from the Greatrex yard who are a bit below par at the moment so the bet does have weapons grade feel to it although obviously the price is nothing to write home about and I am using it conservatively just to get the bet up and running again after the hit it took over Xmas. Fingers crossed we don’t get another Waiting Patiently tripping over it own feet scenario! Usual instructions to get the best price that you can. I had been hoping for 4/5 or 4/6 although it is looking more likely 1/2 as I write.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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