BOZmail 9th JANUARY

JANUARY 2021 – 31 day extension to

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY JANUARY 9th  2021

EXTENSION DAY 9:

2-55 KEMPTON

I start for Saturday by pointing you to the 3-50 Chepstow if that meeting passes its 8am inspection. I do think Dame du Soir has a fair chance on the likely heavy/dead ground of beating McCain’s Whiteoak Fleur – who will need to jump better than she did LTO – and so a 0.1pt Lay on the fav and a 0.05pt BACK on Bridgewater’s mare would be my play. The slight lack of form for the Bridgewater yard isn’t the worry it might be with some stables as his is not a prolific outfit. It is a slight worry nevertheless and so if Chepstow is off, which does look distinctly possible if the overnight frost dips even a tad below what they are expecting, we head to Kempton for this very intriguing Grade 2 Chase which is only marginally my second best of the day in any case.

There is no doubting Clondaw Castle is the value in the race as the improver getting 6lb off the Ryanair fancy Imperial Aura. Tom George’s charge was very unlucky in running LTO at Cheltenham and on paper comes out about level on my assessment with the odds on fav. There is also good LIM cover in Master Tommytucker – who can be expected to do better than LTO in this smaller field if his jumping holds and is also close to the fav on paper receiving 6lb – and Riders Onthe Storm.

The trouble however – and the reason this isn’t my first choice if Chepstow is on – is that I seriously rate Imperial Aura and do think he would be my selection for the race based on past form which is mighty impressive. Price obviously not enticing but chance of winning is strong – so much so that my actual proposed play if we are doing Kempton is to go dutch. Back the value on Clondaw Castle and take a save on Imperial Aura. 

Small stakes whichever way we go again. That kind of day at that time of year!

Recommendation:

0.1pt BACK on IMPERIAL AURA (around 1.9 or better if you can get it)

0.05pt BACK on CLONDAW CASTLE (around 9.0)

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +59.2986points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.7095 points (+13.7095 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 131/187 = 70.05%  Backs : 37/118 = 31.35%

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

December :  +0.8487 points (+13.2195 points)

January LIM Score:

1st:      +0.098 (+0.098) Lay @ 2.75

2nd:     +0.049 (+0.147) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:      +0.098 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.3

4th:      +0.147 (+0.392) Lay @ 2.6

5th:      NO BET

6th:      +0.098 (+0.49)   Lay @ 3.7 (averaged)

7th:      RACING ABANDONED

8th:      NO BET

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