BOZmail – 9th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 9th 2019

 

Received the following email question from a member this morning and with more time for chat and feedback at the moment, spent some time on the reply which I reproduce here for general interest. Any further stuff which bounces up from it, time to email is now. The rundown to Cheltenham Festival starts when we get back in UK action so likely to be very busy for a few months then. Also away in Ireland for five days start of March on research trip. Will still be publishing daily whilst over there.

 

Hi Gary,

             With your method of laying you always choose small fields with my logic telling me the more horses in the race the more chances of beating the lay. I would be interested to hear your views.

You also quite often refer to the times for horses, where is the best source of information for this data.

My reply:

I wrote the original spec for the Less is More bet over four years ago now and things have developed a fair bit since then. You may have a point in suggesting that I might be restricting the bet as a daily mechanism by sticking rigidly to the no more than six runner premise. I can't argue with the assertion that the more runners there are, the more chance of getting the fav beat angle. Less Is More however was not designed solely as a lay the fav system. In fact, not a lay the fav system at all as you'll have seen. Sometimes now, once I've done the race read and chosen my race of the day, I choose another playable lay other than the fav. I also break the six runner rule on occasion as well now. That flexibility has come along as I have practised and gotten used to the process. But ultimately, LIM was a bet designed to help me back a winner without risking a loser. Of course it doesn't always do that but that is what it tries to do each day. Even on the days now where I don't commit to a back each day. In early LIM I always had a value back as well each day. I learned I was going to optimise profit more if I left the back out some days when I couldn't be mega clear what the back was. The back % has never been much above 25 and in early days would be as low as 10-15 and showing a minus against the plus profit score of the lays. I have balanced that more now as I've gone on by always thinking long term. LIM really isn't one bet for one day. It's 350 plus bets for one year. That ensures an annual profit. The psychology of that was always very heavy in it. MAKING SURE WE NEVER LOSE. I still hold firm to that as its foundation. And it is only the foundation stone of The BOZmail. Traditionally the BOZmail did lots of other stuff too and is still doing a couple of other things whilst being far more sparse in this incarnation. That very much by design but constantly under review.

The psychology of winning more days than we lose is at the root of LIM but the other thing that defines it as described in that original premise I wrote was the playing to my strengths as a race reader. I do, like most punters and tipsters, take most pleasure not from finding a horse that is gonna lose but in identifying which one is gonna win. Especially if, like Verdana Blue on Boxing Day, the rest of the country don't agree with me. That is my artistic pride if you like. I love a good winner! But give me an 18 runner handicap at Ascot and ask me to pick the winner. Well I'm not great at that. My methods involve doing the back history of every horse in a race I'm betting in for a start off (and I do that with all LIM races I consider each day which racks up the process time aspect) but even with all the time in the world just to study the one 18 runner handicap at Ascot each day, I don't have a great record of finding winners in those sorts of races. And believe me I have tried! Give me a six horse handicap chase at Fontwell or Ludlow every time. Or the Xmas hurdle at Kempton where I've spotted that the 2/9 Champion hurdler has a potential chink in his armour. That's where my strength as a race reader lies.

And I can't do that every day (although I am working on that as a goal and the recent 18 days in a row winning streak was a definite encouragement that I am still improving toward that aim) but I certainly try for it every day. I study just the races with six or less runners in because that is time manageable. There are all sorts of other factors that come into play like the situation we are in now where I am limited to not many races each day. That makes the process harder not easier as you'll gather and you could argue now was my chance to take on some bigger field races but the number of runners is not the only part of the selection process. I have my back knowledge areas too which are always at the forefront of my selection process. Tracks I specialise in. Tracks I don't. Horses I know intimately (Verdana Blue was one of those). Horses I don't. And genres. US racing is my big genre for the next six days but I don't know US racing like I know UK racing. Only been following US racing three years. Still a novice. Been doing UK racing 45 years. Again, not one bet on one day but 350 plus bets in one year. Experience is a big thing in achieving consistency. So is confidence. And confidence in LIM comes from four years of successfully rolling it out in the public arena and making people profits with it without fail. That's kind of why it is what it is. Not perfect obviously but constantly under review (and feedback from watchers and users always helps that) and always open to improvement.

 

That was a long answer to your question!! I do have a habit of that. So a brief reply to second question. Easier one anyway. I keep time figures on all race bets I do. Both horses and dogs. Have a huge database. Very much my private idiosyncratic ratings system. I learned it off Nevison and Topspeed at the Racing Post but added my own twists into it. It factors track,going etc in and I'm still very much work in progress with it in US racing which has the added sectionals factor. I'm not the one to teach you that. Get the books out and the masters will do it better than I. Nevison and Braddock are always my recommended starting mentors. There are plenty of others too. But keep your own times. If you don't have the time or commitment for that, Topspeed in the Racing Post is a converted ratings system from computer kept readings that is a pretty good guide. Over the years, I have learned which UK tracks it does best at. I have my best betting coups all directly on that line. Fontwell was my staple for many years until they put that all weather strip in! That skewed 20 years of data collection! But hey ho. We have started again since they did so. Just a matter of a new testing period. I'm sure Fontwell scores will improve again once we've got two years of the new figures on record and the differences that the new strip has made become clearer.

Basically the speed a horse covers a certain distance at (at racing pace) can be compared with another on a simple head to head basis. Often the result is very similar and they can be expected to finish pretty much alongside if all other racing factors are equal (going prevalence,jockey expertise etc) but sometimes there is a noticeable differential. That differential is what you want to bet on. Verdana Blue had it over Beuver D'air on good ground. Topspeed in the Racing Post did highlight that day but the market took no notice. There was a weight differential too which when factored did make it a good bet. Won't get the weight in the Champion Hurdle. The ground however will decide whether Verdana has a chance of doing it again. Given that Henderson is the trainer of both and more improvement out of Verdana is a realistic expectation. If she stays a longish price and the ground comes up good, well, we have had our sighter!!

 

Hope that's all helped. There's not one time source I would point you to. Look at them all but ultimately keep your own. And always look at time figures of any race that is part of a race read form study. Learn to spot differentials. When you have one, look for other areas of plus and minus between two contestants on the day. Therein lies the root of finding the cracking winner!

 

And thanks for getting in touch whilst we have more time for chat!  

 

Cheers

 

BOZ

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

2-40 NAAS

Despite having US racing and dog racing on standby, it does look like LIM will get through the weekend with this race at Naas – a qualifier on Saturday – and the novice chase at Punchestown on Sunday. Bare minimum but enough to keep us going.

In a sort of lockdown ourselves though, as ever, when just one race to read and as explained in the above, able these days to be creative in approach and flexible with erstwhile rigid LIM rules.

This novice hurdle ought to be dominated by the two O’Brien runners and on paper Konitho has it on my time figures, has the preferred and first string stable jockey booking and the owner to suggest Konitho could well be the something special his bare form suggests. O’Brien is a bit like Henderson and if he has two running in the same race, you should seriously consider the outsider. I have but unless there is a mega deluge and the ground goes to quagmire heavy, I can’t see Band of Outlaws winning. I actually think the rogue dark horse is Elysian Plains. If he behaves, he may have more to give.

You could back both the O’Briens to level stakes and going dutch still make a profit but I’m going for the single on the class despite the fact that O’Brien’s second string couldn’t win Friday but did. It is extraordinary times, so extraordinary plays and no lay (it would have been on Band of Outlaws if anything) but a small single back on the horse I see as the clear winner, Konitho. Small though. Remaining seriously in cautious mode.

Although I expect to stick to these two Irish races over the weekend, keep an eye out for extra posts in the early hours of Saturday and Sunday in case I decide to slip in an extra US LIM play. Will have to be a good one but I am looking.

Recommendation:

0.2pt BACK on KONITHO

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 43/59 = 72.88% :   BACKS: 7/36 = 19.44%

 

*******************************************************************

NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)  

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14),Magners & Gold Cup (Mar 15)&National (Apr 6)

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

****************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)

Awaiting next weapons grade selection. Will shout when it appears.

 

***********************************************************

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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