BOZmail – 9th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 9th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.148 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.1029 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Sunday play

4-05 EXETER

My race read was ok on Saturday but trusted too much to the To Follow status of Nube Negra and his jumping ability. I could see the Rouge Vif dangers on time and in that second run since wind op and there was a third clue I missed in Jockey Sheehan’s quick decamp after the race in a helicopter to Newbury. I had expected Nube Negra’s jumping to decide it and it was faultless so he simply got beat by the quicker horse. That having been taken out of the Arkle was another clue perhaps to his being just below top drawer and he goes off the to follow after that. Disappointing and after a strong spell, the To Follow has hit a downspell results wise. These things happen. Tomorrow’s treble below a chance to put us back on track!

A backward step for LIM though that needs attention and on we move to a seriously stunning card at Exeter for a Sunday’s racing. That’s if we get past Storm Ciara of course and an 8am inspection booked with wild weather forecast so keep an eye on that. Will be a real shame if this meeting doesn’t go ahead as some intriguing contests lined up – not least this Listed affair that I’ve chosen for LIM with four contenders for the Supreme Novices therein.

The race read here hasn’t been easy and the quality of the racing at the moment is in part what has caught me out past two days. I’ve just underestimated a couple of quality horses but I take another one on here in Sporting John. He has looked tremendous in his last two races and the form has stacked up in both but he still looks to me like the sort to prosper over further and the win from Harry Senior in group company after Sporting John beat him would seem to confirm that. Stamina his thing too. On times Master Debonair looks the quicker of the front two and he has already proven at top class in his last time out demolition of Ribble Valley for which he has to carry an extra 5lb. Great big strapping sort so I’ll back him to carry that and it could be a titanic tussle up front between these two with Master Debonair a confirmed front runner. That leads me to my back fancy however because I think Sir Psycho – getting over a stone from the Tizzard horse on the weight for age and with a line through Bullionaire suggesting he has the beating of Sporting John – is the value at 6/1. His youth might mean he is physically disadvantaged in jumping by the strapping front two but I also think his greater speed means Harry Cobden can hold him up behind whilst the front two knock lumps out of each other and tire on the run in where Sir Psycho can swoop. Possible scenario anyways. And then there’s Kid Commando who is also stepping up in class a bit but is also considered a Supreme possible if the improvement curve continues. Four crackerjack horses and a great race in prospect and I, slightly nervously after the past two days, put my reputation on the line and call Sporting John the lay at 11/8, Master Debonair the LIM cover along with the dark horse Kid Commando whilst a value back is Sir Psycho.

Let’s see if I can’t redeem myself!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on SPORTING JOHN (around 2.4 : Upper value parameter 2.7)

0.1pt BACK on SIR PSYCHO (around 7.0 or better)

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 4/5 = 80%  Backs: 0/2 = 0%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Catterick (Feb 10)

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* – Entered for Plumpton (Feb 10)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Exeter (Feb 9)

Normandy Soldier* –

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Exeter (Feb 9), Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Exeter (Feb 9) & the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

OCCASIONAL TO FOLLOW ACCA at Exeter on SUNDAY:

2-25 Lieutenant Rocco

3-00 Welsh Saint @ 7/2

4-35 Magic of Light @ 4/7

0.01pt EACH WAY TREBLE = Total Stake = 0.02points

The opportunity to trade the first two of this threesome on Sunday is there but I have decided to go down the each way acca route with Magic of Light – our Grand National horse – a banker in the last leg who should really have her field covered.

The speculative leg is the first with Lieutenant Rocco taking on a tougher race this time out but so impressive LTO that he has to be followed. There are four other good sorts in the field so he could end up out of the places if not shining but I’ll take that chance and am hopeful of an actual win if what I saw last time is to be believed.

Welsh Saint looks a solid each way shout with a definite win chance with Portrush Ted the danger in that race. I think Welsh Saint could be seen at his best here though in a slight drop in class over further. He hit a flat spot last time out in black type company but did all his best work late on so I’d expect this distance to really suit as breeding suggests.

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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