BOZmail 9th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 9th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 119/169 = 70.41%  Backs : 33/105 = 31.42%

3-25 HEXHAM

Haven’t had a faller in a while. That was bad timing.Showed my unease was well founded too. Very little else in the race and thus a poor choice race again. My apologies. December proving a testing month already. Nowt to do but soldier on. Shortlist and my interpretation of it did ok at Fontwell so lesson learned there. Was a time Fontwell LIM races were sacred and my apologies that I let that fact slip my mind yesterday. Does however add emphasis to the fact that BOZmail membership next year includes receipt of the shortlist system. Important aspect these days I think.

On to Wednesday and Lady Bowes’ long awaited next assignment. I had intended going fairly gung ho if I arrived on the front foot. Back on the backfoot however I temper my enthusiasm although very interesting that Jimmy Moffat has decided to run in the 2m 4f race of the two entries made. It does look the easier race to win (the Charm Offensive trade race – see below – is the other race entered) but the longer distance didn’t obviously seem to suit LTO. That they persevere suggests my Grand National theory may not be wide of the mark. Heavy ground at Hexham also a negative I think. The race is there for winning however if Lady Bowes is ready for it and jumps better than first time over hurdles. Sophie Fatale would be the obvious danger although that she must recover from a bad fall LTO is reason her price is longer than expected. I’ll refrain from playing the lay. Lady Bowes is my to follow horse bar none. I play simple back on her.

I take some solace from the fact that the conquered Headscarf Lil won her next time out race after defeat by Lady Bowes.

Recommendation:

0.12pt BACK on LADY BOWES (around 5.0 – Get best price you can.)

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill 

Al Dancer – Entered for Cheltenham(Dec 12)&KingGeorge(Dec 26)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

********************

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE for WEDNESDAY:

1-25 HEXHAM – CHARM OFFENSIVE @ 6/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential

Odds appear.

Probably an each way chance  with West End Lady in the field who finished well ahead LTO. Fairfield Ferrata also a danger if taking to jumping but the ground should suit Charm Offensive who was given an easy time on hurdle debut and should strip fitter this time out with stable clicking over nicely. I will be playing to leave a fair bit for implementing the 1.1 and 1.01 lays in play should they look possible outcomes. The booking of Brian Hughes bodes well.

*******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

****************************************************

LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +51.9017points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.0188 points (+12.0188 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 49.8234 points (+41.8234 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *