BOZmail – 9th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY DECEMBER 9th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +16.1927 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +68.0525 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

1-45 MUSSELBURGH

I don’t think there were any excuses for La Bague au Roi who had it in the bag as far as I could see two out when my internet went down. When it came back up she was lost in 3rd place! Good job I wasn’t trading on the race! The replay showed the mare

hanging badly left at the last two fences which let Top Notch through and that’s racing for you. Don’t remember her doing that before (she has won going right handed) so either she was hurt, hating the ground (looks unlikely) or decided to throw a paddy, we’ll probably never know. Goes off my list for now though because of that (and her previous run) and could possibly have gone over although that does seem hard to believe. Looked the sure winner at the bottom bend and has gone on and won those before with the opposition rowing away in behind. Bottled it or simply threw it away. Neither explanation good. The market beforehand did hint at it mind. A paddock watch may have shed some light. Sadly wasn’t there to do that. So will keep ear to the ground but whichever, a wrong call and a disappointment to be quickly cast aside as we press on to attempt repair to the give back of funds we could have done without. Has to be accepted as always.

The jungle drums are banging for this race at Musselburgh where French import Defi Sacre is being sent all the way from Gloucester – the Hobson stable in rude health and form – and he is consequently odds on to beat some decent handicappers who have a much more solid look to them – not least our old friend Middlebrow who owes us not a bean thanks to his 16/1 land for us in June.

I can see the appeal in Defi Sacre as the winner in view of the faith the red hot stable are showing in sending him so far. The Fakenham form LTO also took a boost at Sandown on Friday when his conqueror ran second in a better race. There is also the matter of his coming from same sire as the one and only Sprinter Sacre – simply the best jumper of a fence I ever saw.

Defi Sacre however is not the greatest at clambering over the birch. Got speed on the flat alright but jumps skewiff and a tad headstrong. Typical French bred. Needs a firm hand. So maybe they have schooled some of Sprinter’s class into him but am I willing to take 10/11 on what he has shown in this country so far? Stumbly jumper ? No I am not. He might hose in if he puts in a clear round and Musselburgh is a quick track that might suit. There is however such a thing as a talking horse and he has the feel of that about him to me. All about the price as it usually is. I’ll stand the bets at odds on until he’s proved to me that he can jump.

Recommendations:

 0.25pt LAY on DEFI SACRE (around 1.92 : no greater than 2.0)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 207/313 = 66.13% :   BACKS: 56/210 = 26.66%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

7th:   +0.898 (+0.942) Lay @ 3.13 : Back @ 7.04

8th:    -0.526 (+0.418) Lay @ 2.88 : Back @ 4.1

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh – Entered for Warwick (Dec 12)

Wenceslaus 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for Ascot (Dec 21) + King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger 

Welsh Saint – Entered for Warwick (Dec 12)

Normandy Soldier – Entered for Warwick (Dec 12)

Ribble Valley 

Kid Commando 

Jatiluwih

Soaring Glory

Esprit Du Large

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

1-30 HUNTINGDON – TEA CLIPPER @ 9/4 – 0.25pt BACK – 1st

(Backed @ 3.3 : Hedged in running @ 1.46) = P/L +0.46 points

I resisted hedging before the race and was telling myself throughout that he was travelling like a winner and that he had the champ on board with him to deal with any late challenges but I have to confess that my nerve broke after the clatter at the last and the 1.46 hedge I posted was indeed taken by a greater believer than I (maybe it was you!!) and so my profit optimisation record, which has been going well in recent days, took a hit here. Not a terrible one but a niggler nevertheless. But as I’ve been advising a few lately, you have to take what you get and so long as you did your best, you never chastise yourself. I did my best here. But note to self. Could have done better!! Well done those who decided not to trade and believed in the champ. He’s due a Xmas card anyway but he’ll get a cigar too for that ride!

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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