BOZmail – 9th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY AUGUST 9th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-30 BRIGHTON

This probably is a two horse race and a straight pick and the market could easily flip flop on who starts fav. They both ran well LTO but I was mega taken with Malvern and expect him to carry the weight and run on strong up the hill on this idiosyncratic track. Right jockey on our side.

Time to pull the reins in a bit though after another poor day’s results on Thursday.Bad luck with the odds on lay who they hammered in the market but he did look beat a furlong out. Had to push his way to win by a nose and survive a 50-50 steward’s. 

Despite the minus, could have been so much worse had I played conventional and laid Rock the Cradle. Got that race all wrong. Suppose you’d say those that went with gambling hunch Boz had the better of a bad day!

Too many of those now since that good start to the month. A week of inconsistency since and I think I’m missing my jump racing. Usually do ok in August and started with that expectation but am feeling a little adrift of things now and time to play profit protection. Don’t want to start eating into last month’s plusses. And do have my footy staggered acca starter ready to go tomorrow. Caution therefore on Friday.  Just as important to know when to ease off as it is to know when to go for it. Playing the long game.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on COTAI AGAIN (around 2.0 or lower : no greater than 2.2)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 141/210 = 67.14% :   BACKS: 42/144 = 29.16%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee 

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

Piedita

James Watt

Lord of the Lodge

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.72 points.

Staggered acca number 16: (LEG 1)

Will shout at the emergence of the next staggered acca.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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