BOZmail – 8th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 8th  2019 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

*******************************************

2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

**************************************************

THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +11.8667 points

*************************************************

BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +56.5195 points

Keeping this figure ongoing now in the run up to annual cycle completion on November 30th. Target is 100 points as always and sheet has undergone review past few days to try and push on to that figure. To follow trades will become more focussed as the key element of the modern BOZ alongside cornerstone LIM and the new sheet introduction of the PERMED ACCA detailed below. Tennis betting now completed for 2019. Not the greatest year but not a loser either. That’s the main thing! Heads down now for the run in! 

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-45 FONTWELL

Just wrong again on Saturday and the September hoodoo is around. Worth mentioning for those that want to take it easy this month. Just something about that form turnaround time that challenges my methods every year. I plug on as contracted nevertheless!

The front two here are closely matched from a run behind Cubswin at Newton Abbot where Constancio gave a stone and finished one and a quarter length behind so the Chapmanshype 7lb penalty here and just 6lb difference this time brings them pretty close with the vote just going to the topweight who travels a distance with his jockey specially for the race. That LTO Chapmanshype victory also pays compliment to the form and gives a further plus to Constancio who has to be fancied to be able to turn the form around.

That said, it’s an open race with Asylo much more likely to be competitive back over hurdles and I wouldn’t entirely rule out the rag Nathans Pride would he to come back to his best. My Idea of the value in the race however is Evan Williams’s Voodoo Doll who has a break to overcome but did well fresh winning three on the bounce last June and has been working his way back down to a winning mark since. I would have preferred to see Adam Wedge in the saddle but Isabel’s 7lb allowance is a plus and she is a rider to admire on certain horses who benefit from her silky holdup tactics. Times read well for this so just the 172 days off the course to overcome. My old shortlist system is keen on VD and you’ll see that after a couple of years off and a period of watch and tweak, the shortlist system is making a comeback onto the BOZmail to replace the staggered acca as an attempt to win big from small stake. More on that below.  

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on CHAPMANSHYPE (around 3.00 : no greater than 3.5)

0.1pt BACK on VOODOO DOLL (around 11.0)

***************************************************

This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 Back @ 9.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 154/234 = 65.81% :   BACKS: 44/158 = 27.84%

*****************************************************  

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. Transferred now to starting bank for SHORTLIST SYSTEM PERMED ACCA BET which will start sometime this month and has an introduction and example at

FONTWELL on Sunday September 8th outlined below:

The shortlist system ran on the BOZmail and as a stand alone tipping advice between 2007 and 2017 and reached its zenith at Fontwell in April 2013 when it landed the through the card permed acca on an 8 race meeting bringing a 1751/1 return.The combined win odds came to over 3 million to one that day for those isolating to the correct one selection in each race from the shortlist selections. Needless to say, that did not include me but did include two BOZmailers who have both been living in retirement luxury ever since. The bet is placed on the Betfair exchange multiples template although can also be played on Tote Jackpot or Placepot models to decent effect. There are also a myriad of uses for smaller multiple bets and combos for those inclined to that sort of thing. The BOZmail however just plays the pure through the card permed acca  to a single stake of 0.1pt. The beauty of the Betfair template is that it allows this single stake approach and although patience is needed and discipline is paramount, you can see that the above 10pt bank transferred without loss from the staggered acca attempts gives us 100 goes at this new approach. I’d be confident of landing at least one from those hundred goes. The 0.1pt in April 2013 returned 175.1pts profit so you see the potential of big returns from small outlay and on achieving any return of 10pts or over, the system will be cessated on this service for the rest of the year. Odds obviously fluctuate wildly from attempt to attempt but one landed is the sign of success and further attempts held for a time. BOZmail discipline of banking profits as always will be the order of the day.

It is not a system to run under bookmaker’s noses for any time after a success hence part of the reason it has been on sabbatical these past two years. The other reason was that Fontwell – the flagship course for the shortlist system although not the only course where it works well – underwent the laying of an all weather strip in recent years which did skew the system results for a time. Watch and tweak has corrected that now and it is ready for reintroduction in 2019 thus.

And the 8th September card will be used as an example to give BOZmailers new to the concept an idea of how to play. It is not an especially strong example of the system from a winning expectation point of view as selections are largely made from back form and there are several races on this card which are very thin on back form (those races are always marked by an asterix and can be left out of smaller attempts at accas from the card) and so the example is a watch only. Get an idea of how it operates. I will be posting actual play recommended PERMED ACCAS in the coming months on days where winning chance is deemed fair and at those UK tracks where the system is known to work well.

The four prime tracks are FONTWELL-BATH-NEWTON ABBOT & SEDGEFIELD although there are several other tracks on the subs bench list that can be used when the winning chance comes up decent. But it won’t be played every day. Likely one or two per week over the autumn and winter months.

Any questions or queries you have about this element of the BOZmail can be addressed to me as always via email on garyboswell@hotmail.com. I will always endeavour to answer asap. Good Luck with it and here’s Sunday’s example to watch in real time:

THE BOZMAIL 2019 PERMED ACCA from the Shortlist System for 8/9/19 at Fontwell:

2-10*  SILK RUN

2-40* GLUTNFORPUNISHMENT

3-15 NO NO CARDINAL – THOMAS BLOSSOM

3-45 CONSTANCIO – VOODOO DOLL

4-20 TWASN’T THE PLAN – ARCHIMENTO

4-50 DOWNLOADTHEAPP – INVINCIBLE DON – HARDTOROCK

5-20*SHANTOU SUNSET 

***********************************************************

US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

SERENA                                                   Current P/L = +0.6 points

REST OF THE FIELD                                                    = 0 points  

**************************************************************************************

SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer -Entered for Perth (Sep 9)

Caius Marcius 

*****************************************************

HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES on SATURDAY:

4-10 HAYDOCK – Waldpfad @ 12/1

Ran and finished well allowing for a decent trading profit:

  • Backed at 19.0 before the off to 0.5pt
  • Hedged for 1pt at 6.0 as he ran on final furlong
  • P/L = +0.49pts

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *