BOZmail 8th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 8th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +15.2137 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.7744 points (+4.7744 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.1748 points (+11.1748 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.4135 points (+0.4135 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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US OPEN report DAY SEVEN:

Shelby got her break to go 4-3 in the first set and we got offered 14.0 on Kvitova in the outrights! I don’t need asking twice and atoned for what I think was an error in not greening out first time. But that’s it. Profit from the bet now guaranteed and quite a way still to go. Now just a case of tweaking to spread the profit plus or maximise in the areas where I think the winner really will come from. Still judgement calls to be made. But fun to be had cheering our surviving outsiders on and home! 

Kvitova v Rogers continued very 50-50 from the hedge point with Kvitova breaking straight back to 4-4 but Rogers then winning the tight tie break only to lose the second set fairly routinely. Yoyoed again however start of the final set with Rogers breaking for 2-0 at which point I hedged her out completely with another 0.05pt at 34.0. Kvitova broke back again and with serve then until the finale of a very tight encounter well played by both players. Rogers saved a couple of match points for 5-5. Tense stuff!

More match points for Kvitova in the tie break but Rogers kept believing and my first two quarter winners both through! Continues in very positive vein!

1st quarter winner: Yulia Putintseva @ 6.4  Second best: Angelique Kerber @ 4.5

2nd quarter winner: Shelby Rogers @ 10.5 Second best: Naomi Osaka @ 2.32

3rd quarter winner: Maria Sakkari @ 4.6 Second best: Serena Williams @ 1.84

4th quarter winner: Karolina Muchova @ 6.8 Second best: Sofia Kenin @ 3.75   

0.001pt single bet costing just 10p! 

OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

1pt LAY on NAOMI OSAKA @ 5.4 – 2 x 0.3pt hedges taken @ 7.0 & 11.0  (+0.35)

0.5pt LAY on PETRA KVITOVA @ 12.0 -0.3pt hedge @ 15.0 & 0.1pt @ 14.0 – Eliminated

0.1pt BACK on SHELBY ROGERS @ 110.0 – 0.05pt hedge @ 75.0 & 0.05pt @ 34  (+5.9)

0.1pt BACK on MADISON BRENGLE @ 200.0 -0.1pt hedge @ 170.0 – Eliminated

0.05pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK @ 70.0 – 0.05pt hedge taken @ 60.0  – Eliminated

0.05pt BACK on TSVETANA PIRONKOVA @ 100.0   (+5.45)

0.05pt BACK on MARIA SAKKARI @ 30.0               (+1.85)

0.05pt BACK on KAROLINA MUCHOVA @ 42.0    (+2.45)

REST OF THE FIELD    (+0.35)

 4th ROUND MATCH BET ACCAS – SUNDAY & MONDAY:

Naomi Osaka to beat Annet Kontaveit @ 1.54 – WON

Sofia Kenin to beat Elise Mertens @ 1.86  : 0.1pt DOUBLE

Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Alize Cornet @ 1.98 : 0.1pt TREBLE

Maria Sakkari to beat Serena Williams @ 2.8 : 0.05pt FOUR TIMER

Total Stake Spend of : 0.25pt

Osaka and Kenin are the bankers and that – should it prove correct – pays for the other two. I’m fairly keen on Pironkova again although Cornet is tougher than Vekic and the market is catching on now. Cornet also seems to be riding her luck and has a charmed life passage through to here. But I’m still wholly behind the Bulgarian.

And see above about Sakkari being the one to stop Serena. It’s undoubtedly value. You never say never with Serena but she does get beat and those legs are gettable if the Greek girl makes her run!   

US OPEN TRADES: +0.3213 points

US OPEN ACCAS: +0.8585 points

US OPEN TOURNAMENT SCORE AFTER ROUND THREE: +1.1798 points

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 76/107 = 71.02%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

4-25 NEWTON ABBOT

Pretty disappointed in the Newton Abbot card after all but one for us to play – another unlike LIM race but to follow horse Little Jessture does look just that. Worth following.

Effectively escapes the penalty for the win over Beholden – which was a penalty affected result – but the times were good and the mare is up against a trio of PTP recruits who are difficult to appraise but all look longterm NH stamina sorts so I’d be hopeful Little Jessture can show that turn of foot again and see them off. No tissue as I write so prices are vague and I’m not wild about a lay anyways so I’ll leave that to you if you think there is a fav to take on against her. For me, just a small play on the to follow horse from a stable scoring well on the horses running to form indices.

Recommendation:

0.1pt BACK on LITTLE JESSTURE (around 4.0 or best you can get)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon – Entered for Haydock (Sep 10)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie – Entered at Uttoxeter (Sep 9)

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale – Entered at Uttoxeter (Sep 9)

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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