BOZmail – 8th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY OCTOBER 8th  2019 

A couple of questions I’ve been asked the past couple of days which may benefit from giving an answer to all. The first was how come I took 4.09 on a lay that I’d set parameters of between 3.5 and 4.0. The answer is that those parameters are a guide only. They expect you (and me) to be doing our own assessments after they are published (so much happens now between the night before and the time of the race) and for you (and me) to make our own judgements based on what we find. Certain times of the year again, you will find some overnight tissue prices on which I base my selections varying wildly before the off. In races where the tissue oddsmakers – by whom the bookmakers are guided – have been guessing because there is not much info to go on, they can be wildly wrong. I often choose these races as the false fav races for that very reason but they do mean you often have to get on early at the prices. Has happened both of the last two days. I had to be spectacularly early to get my 4.09 and the lay drifted as far out as 9.0 before doing what was expected which was blowing up. Not suggesting you take the 9.0. Too risky but if you agree that I might be right about the horse being a false fav, get what reasonable price you can. Your definition of reasonable is what matters here. I personally would not have been backing that one at over 5.0 nor the following one (which I got at 1.88) at anything over 2.4 which is what he drifted to by following morning (and 3.2 later). Common occurrence. Part of the game. Particularly pertinent at certain times of the year when guesswork abounds. Best to practice and get used to it. Caveat is always – if in doubt, don’t bet.

Second question was how much do I use the Attheraces and Racingtv race archives to research my selections. Answer is all the time! Apologies if I haven’t flagged this up before.

I’m a watching racing junkie anyways so have my saved catalogue of favourite races to watch whenever I need cheering up. Recent addition to this is the 1997 Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown when Danoli beat Jodami and Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Imperial Call in an absolute classic. I got that off You Tube because its so old but I do remember it happening and was prompted to go back and view after hearing Richie Kavanagh’s Danoli celebration song which brings a tear to my eye. Danoli had fallen in the Cheltenham Gold Cup when widely fancied and this was the making up for it. And boy did that horse try its heart out.

I always love a trier. Especially an underdog trier. I like jockeys who fit that bill too and if you missed Uttoxeter on Sunday go back to the Attheraces archive and watch through all the races to see three of my favourite lesser jockeys having their day with brilliant rides. That being Chester Williams (who won’t be a lesser jockey much longer), Lee Edwards (a hero of mine) and James Best (the greatest trier of them all). I’m in it for watching the racing. In real time and (because of my age no doubt) for the nostalgia too with replays. Which are free to watch. That I also like being the old tight arsed skinflint that I am! As for the value to research.Totally unquantifiable and irreplaceable. I believe mainly in tipping from things you’ve seen with your own eyes and in real life and in real time is best. But for this job, where I am often being asked to pass comment on horses I’ve never seen before, the free racing archives are priceless. Don’t bet without them and don’t take my word for it. If you aren’t using them, start now! (You can take my word on that!) If you are a watching racing junkie like me, welcome to 24/7 heaven!   

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.2887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.536 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY 

6-10 CHELMSFORD

Defeat’s not always bad news because obviously Maire Banrigh was in another class carrying that weight in that ground. Wenceslaus also acquitted himself well (without ever being given a hard race) and will be winning in future. Worth knowing. Both make it on to the to follow list. Sometimes the long game is THE game.

And Tuesday oddly sees us back on the flat – all weather for the most part now and winter all weather is something I am comfortable with and this three runner race I actually like. Arctic Sound looks the class call with his Group Three success and his recent close second in the German 2000 Guineas but there are a couple of question marks for me in all weather surface and the Johnston stable being the least on song of the three here at the moment. Do tend to wind down about now but that said, winding down in quality not quantity with 72 runners in the past fortnight and the winners tally in double figures. So a fair favourite but the one I think might beat him is Owen Burrows’ Habub who is poised to be outsider of three as I write. The least exposed runner with improvement on the cards for the step up in trip and from a stable with 88% on the in running form chart and crucially actually top scorer on my times chart which was achieved here at Chelmsford on two recent occasions (Burrows also 2/2 with his runners at Chelmsford in the past fortnight). The LTO run beaten a head by Lethal Lunch being the one most suggestive of victory in this. Which leaves the Chapple-Hyam Ambassadorial third in on my figures and at a layable price suggesting to me the way to play as….

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on AMBASSADORIAL (around 3.0 : No greater than 3.3)

0.15pt BACK on HABUB (around 3.5)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 168/258 = 65.11% :   BACKS: 48/174 = 27.58%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus

Tokaramore

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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