BOZmail 8th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

THURSDAY OCTOBER 8th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +29.0501 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.3771 points (+5.3771 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 32.8585 points (+24.8585 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 85/120 = 70.83%  Backs : 22/73 = 30.13%

12-45 FFOS LAS

Plainly a case of picked the wrong race on the day and picked the wrong one of the two favs to oppose as well. Bloody annoying. With hindsight, easy to see what I got wrong. Rebecca Menzies was the key to the day and stamina at Sedgefield should always be appreciated. The market move on Tonto looked encouraging (that might have been us I suppose) but was another bad pick.He ran awful. I never mind value plays getting beat but I do at least expect some effort! 

And so an expensive start to the upping the staking on LIM but I’ve started that now and must finish and must simply work harder to get it right. We at least have the cushion of Return Ticket softening the blow on the day. And the tennis remains hopeful. Take the bad one on the chin and move on.

Several negatives for the fav in the Ffos Las opening race tomorrow despite his coming from the Evan Williams yard who does have a lot of winners here. Lot of losers too!

Being touted as an odds on shot so get the shortest lay price you can because I think the factor determining yesterday’s two races will come in to play here too. Mouseinthehouse is the ring rusty runner. It cost Oakmont and Theatre Legend in our races yesterday and my idea of winner in this would be Cesar Collonges if he can overcome recent form. The fav must carry the burden of penalty for LTO win and that was also achieved on heavy which is a particular specialism at Ffos Las and although soft on Thursday this will be a very different test. Time figures do not favour the fav and I think he might well get outspeeded in this. 

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on MOUSEINTHEHOUSE (around 2.0)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY TWELVE)

Danielle Collins hit her buffer as she has tendency to do (hence not keeping her as a serious back to win and using her to hedge and optimise profit as intended) and managed another 0.1pt into the coffers before her third set melt down which makes the semi-final position thus and healthy enough. No more to be done now and just three tennis matches to sit and watch and enjoy. Profit, as they say, is in the bag. Time to get back to studying horses!

Outrights Portfolio- Semi Finals Position:

Iga Swiatek  (+1.805)

Nadia Podoroska (+0.605)

Petra Kvitova (+0.605)

Danielle Collins hedged 0.1pt @ 11.0 (+1.505) -Eliminated

Sofia Kenin (+0.605) 

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required this time!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.4pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.3121pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 9)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10) & The Curragh (Oct 11)

Longhouse Sale – Entered for Chepstow (Oct 10)

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

Wenceslaus

HORSE TO FOLLOW over jumps on Wednesday:

1-45 SEDGEFIELD – RETURN TICKET @ 2/1 – 0.15pt BACK – WON

Backed @ 3.25 : P/L = +0.3307points

Murdered them on fitness and stays on the list as one who could go in again NTO now he’s got the hang. Especially on a flat track.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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