BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail
Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet
SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8th 2020
BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +44.2566 points
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LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points
Currently stands at : 28.8313 points (+8.8313 points)
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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points
Currently stands at : 45.1258 points (+37.1258 points)
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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points
Currently stands at : 4.4485 points (-0.5515 points)
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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)
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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)
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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)
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LESS IS MORE
LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 103/141 = 73.04% Backs : 28/90 = 31.11%
1-42 FFOS LAS
A Beginners Chas where all depends once more on the jumping and fitness from lay off.Highway One O Two has the edge on hurdles form but I’m taken by the value involved in Mack The Man who also has black type form over hurdles, is on his home track and has an eyecatching jockey booking in the absence of Adam Wedge. Totterdown is good LIM cover with his Chase experience giving him a possible edge in the jumping and fitness stakes whilst Hitman is also a dark horse on his debut in England for the Nicholls yard having had a wind op and having been sure to be well schooled in the care of Guillame Macaire.
Tissue prices not out as I write but get the best prices you can.
Recommendations:
0.2pt LAY on HIGHWAY ONE O TWO
0.1pt BACK on MACK THE MAN
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LIM Scores for November:
1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8
2nd: NO BET
3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05
4th: NO BET
5th: +0.098 (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0
6th: +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5
7th: +0.196 (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35
HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE in the Breeders Cup on Friday:
8-10 Keeneland – BATTLEGROUND @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK – 2nd
Backed @ 6.2 : Hedged 0.35pt @ 3.75 : P/L = +0.098points
Well, he didn’t get a great start but I think I’m prepared to say I would have been activating my 1.1 and 1.01 hedge if the American jockeys had not adopted Trump Agressions on the fancied fav from the other side of the pond! Horses leaning on him on the inside and on the outside and boxing whenever they got the chance. So gave first run to the winner. Battleground was the finisher and maybe wouldn’t have got there any ways because he was well out of the ground two out. But the bumping and boring certainly didn’t help! Rough stuff American racing. Rough stuff American Life at the minute! I try not to get too involved and that was my token bet in this year’s Breeders cup. Showed a profit. As they say in Yorkshire, “ That’ll do!”.
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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):
Wild Polly
Straw Fan Jack
McFabulous
Flic Ou Voyou
Soaring Glory
Israel Champ
Bravemansgame
Sangha River
Captain Tom Cat
Saint Sam (FR)
Pisgah Pike – Entered @Huntingdon (Nov 10) & Cheltenham (Nov 15)
Young Wolf
Sirobbie
Soldier of Love (3m 2f)
Lady Bowes(soft)
Captain Zebo
Defi Sacre
Leoncavallo
Oscar Rose – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9) & Hereford (Nov 10)
She’s a Rocca(heavy) – Entered @ Ayr (Nov 11)
Charm Offensive
Timetoroe(heavy)
Baby Jane
Calum Gilhooly
The Butcher Said
Mrs Hyde
Return Ticket(flat track)
Carroll’s Milan
Prettylittlething – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)
Boothill
Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14) & King George (Dec 26)
Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Hereford (Nov 10)
Stormy Ireland -Entered for Bangor (Nov 11)
Eldorado Allen
For Pleasure
Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)
Enrichissant – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)
Zamani
Ucanaver
Ribble Valley
Shan Blue
Snow Leopardess
Marble Sands
Dusart
Bobby Bow (heavy)
Summerville Boy
Ga Law
NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:
1-15 WINCANTON – FLIC OU VOYOU @2/5
3-20 AINTREE – DEFI SACRE @ 7/2 – 0.25pt BACK
Backed @ 6.0 : hedged 0.1pt @ 3.75 & 0.5pt @ 2.0 : P/L = +0.343pts
With the value pre race suggesting he wouldn’t be super primed but better placed than Thomas Darby was, I decided to go with a back in running and then saved some for the finish when I saw how well he was travelling and jumping. The latter in particular remains impressive. He jumps as well as his brother Sprinter Sacre did and I’m sure we’ll have some fun with this horse in the months and years ahead. I thought it was 50-50 on him winning when I took the 2.0 and he went as low as 1.6 before hitting a flat spot that suggested he might drop back to 4th or 5th only to find a second wind and put in a spectacular leap again at the last to regain second. Winner was away but that was a mighty encouraging run from Defi. He remains in my top five fav horses and a win NTO might put him in the top three!
0.1pt WIN DOUBLE – LOST
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LIM Monthly Scores:
February: + 1.3496 points
March : + 1.5866 points
UK RACING LOCKDOWN
April : – 0.1733 points
May : – 0.8359 points
UK RACING RESTARTED
June : + 0.0428 points
July : + 0.8046 points
August : +1.9726 points (+4.747 points)
September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)
October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)
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The BOZmail golden rules:
1/ Try to look where others do not.
2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)
3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)
4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.
5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.
6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).
7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.
“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.” Boz