BOZmail 8th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 8th  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +44.2566 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 28.8313 points (+8.8313 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 45.1258 points (+37.1258 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.4485 points (-0.5515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 103/141 = 73.04%  Backs : 28/90 = 31.11%

1-42 FFOS LAS

A Beginners Chas where all depends once more on the jumping and fitness from lay off.Highway One O Two has the edge on hurdles form but I’m taken by the value involved in Mack The Man who also has black type form over hurdles, is on his home track and has an eyecatching jockey booking in the absence of Adam Wedge. Totterdown is good LIM cover with his Chase experience giving him a possible edge in the jumping and fitness stakes whilst Hitman is also a dark horse on his debut in England for the Nicholls yard having had a wind op and having been sure to be well schooled in the care of Guillame Macaire.

Tissue prices not out as I write but get the best prices you can.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on HIGHWAY ONE O TWO

0.1pt BACK on MACK THE MAN

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE in the Breeders Cup on Friday:

8-10 Keeneland – BATTLEGROUND @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK – 2nd

Backed @ 6.2 : Hedged 0.35pt @ 3.75 : P/L = +0.098points

Well, he didn’t get a great start but I think I’m prepared to say I would have been activating my 1.1 and 1.01 hedge if the American jockeys had not adopted Trump Agressions on the fancied fav from the other side of the pond! Horses leaning on him on the inside and on the outside and boxing whenever they got the chance. So gave first run to the winner. Battleground was the finisher and maybe wouldn’t have got there any ways because he was well out of the ground two out. But the bumping and boring certainly didn’t help! Rough stuff American racing. Rough stuff American Life at the minute! I try not to get too involved and that was my token bet in this year’s Breeders cup. Showed a profit. As they say in Yorkshire, “ That’ll do!”.

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @Huntingdon (Nov 10) & Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9) & Hereford (Nov 10)

She’s a Rocca(heavy) – Entered @ Ayr (Nov 11)

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14) & King George (Dec 26)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Hereford (Nov 10)

Stormy Ireland -Entered for Bangor (Nov 11)

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)

Zamani 

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

1-15 WINCANTON – FLIC OU VOYOU @2/5        

3-20 AINTREE – DEFI SACRE @ 7/2 – 0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 6.0 : hedged 0.1pt @ 3.75 & 0.5pt @ 2.0 : P/L = +0.343pts

With the value pre race suggesting he wouldn’t be super primed but better placed than Thomas Darby was, I decided to go with a back in running and then saved some for the finish when I saw how well he was travelling and jumping. The latter in particular remains impressive. He jumps as well as his brother Sprinter Sacre did and I’m sure we’ll have some fun with this horse in the months and years ahead. I thought it was 50-50 on him winning when I took the 2.0 and he went as low as 1.6 before hitting a flat spot that suggested he might drop back to 4th or 5th only to find a second wind and put in a spectacular leap again at the last to regain second. Winner was away but that was a mighty encouraging run from Defi. He remains in my top five fav horses and a win NTO might put him in the top three! 

0.1pt WIN DOUBLE LOST

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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