BOZmail – 8th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY MAY 8th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-45 KELSO

I’m a bit like an australian batsman in the nervous nineties making a real meal of reaching my hundredth successful Lay on the service but inch by inch, I am getting there and although I still can’t back a winner, Giving Back didn’t give any back and on the positive side, I’ve now scored 2 successful lays from the past three. Things can only get better and they did a bit on Tuesday because I saw a proper horse to put in your notebooks. Jim Goldie’s GET OUT THE GATE won a thrilling chase debut at Ayr in the style of a good one – beating a well bet Kim Bailey horse in the process. Goes straight into the notebook and you can put the second in aswell. Don’t know if we’ll see either again out over the summer but two horses I will definitely be backing NTO.

I also saw Sam Twiston Davies ride a pearler on Inessa at Fakenham and as that was my second best fav to get beat on Tuesday, I was particularly impressed. Looked beat two out but under a serious ride from STD, the fav got up in the shadow and I look to the newly inspired freelance lad to come to my aid on Wednesday in this one at Kelso. Neil Mulholland sends Sleep Easy all the way from Wiltshire and although there is a tendency to jump right that I worry about, this horse is in easier company here as favourite Flowery has gone shooting up the weights for all his wins and is due to be caught by the handicapper soon if not now. As well as STD’s assistance, the weatherman promises to help Sleep Easy too with heavy rain forecast in the Kelso area tonight and tomorrow. The wetter the better for Sleep Easy and I’m getting on tonight whilst the price is still value. I think Flowery will drift tomorrow although he is unlikely to be inconvenienced by the weather but it won’t help him concede the weight. Ain’t my Fault provides decent LIM cover.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on FLOWERY (around 1.9 : No greater than 2.4)

0.2pt BACK on SLEEP EASY (2.75 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 98/141 = 69.50% :   BACKS: 22/90 = 24.44%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

GET OUT THE GATE

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby (June 29)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.544 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 2)

 I will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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