BOZmail – 8th March

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY MARCH 8th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.6586 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.7991 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Sunday play

4-30 SOUTHWELL

The double lay proved a mistake on Saturday but if you adjusted your stake on Saint De Vassy to create recommended liability (around 2.2 so you could safely lay at around 3.3 – see rule 4 if you are not doing this yet) or you stayed out of the drifting price on the winner then not too much damage done. Sadly I did get on early on Hollywoodien so won’t be top of the price optimising table tonight!. Fair to say it was a race I read wrong although Baby King was coming with a possible challenge when breasting the second last and putting paid to that. The Symonds yard in better fettle than I accounted for and Coleman booking was also significant with hindsight.

This is a terrific card at Southwell to celebrate International Women’s Day and as a full time and lifelong feminist I’d have been there to suport it if it weren’t for the fact I’m on hot toddies with honey and lemon to try and shake the bugs away. A self isolating Cheltenham is starting to look a possibility!

I like both the LIM qualifiers here and I also like the Warwick race where I will be supporting an old mate of mine – Ellens Way – who I must admit I hadn’t noticed was back running again after a couple of years off. She is a BOZmail heroine as long timers will know – bringing up both our Boxing Day acca in 2017 and our new years eve sting the year before. Likes this ground but hasn’t really lived up to old form in 2020 efforts so far and goes chasing now which is where she always looked like she belonged. Goes straight back on the to follow list if she runs ok here but she is mainly a watching brief on Sunday in view of the recent runs. International women’s day would be an auspicious day for her to show her worth however. You have been notified! Not an LIM play because Litterale Ci will take some beating. Connections will be happy if she gets close.

And so I hop back to the all weather to support Wasntexpectingthat if turning out again after a stellar run at Wolverhampton on Saturday beaten a nose in a much better race than this. In the event of her absence, I’m still ok taking on likely fav Split Down South (does that refer to what I think it refers to? Not a name I’ve encountered before) who steps up in class and carries a prohibitive penalty and looks vulnerable not only to Megan Nicholls’ mount but also Zylan who is on same formline (and just held by Wasntexpectingthat). Highland Dress is a difficult to assess very much dark horse under the guidance of top female jockey Hollie Doyle who is the only rider not making a claim here. You can’t rule Dapper Man out on form either despite his name!

My play however is to back Wasntexpectingthat if showing up and playing just the lay on Split Down South if not. You may be wise getting your lay on early.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on SPLIT DOWN SOUTH (around 2.8 – less if just a four runner race)

0.1pt BACK on WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT (if turning out again)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 18/29 = 62.06%  Backs: 6/20 = 30%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

7th:     -0.34 (+0.309) Lays @ 4.9 & 1.66 : Backs @ 9.0 & 24.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 12 & 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ – Entered for the Champion Bumper (Mar 12)

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave – Entered for Stratford(Mar9)

It’safreebee – Entered for Fakenham (Mar 13)

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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