BOZmail – 8th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY JUNE 8th  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

1-45 HAYDOCK

I’ve covered my thoughts on the tennis yesterday so no more on today’s final except that when I said I should have switched wholly to the tennis for the duration of the French Open fortnight, I probably should have with several points accumulated there whilst the horses remained and remain difficult. May’s profit reduced a tad by a last day loser and the five trades I put up on Derby day… well, dunno about you but I managed profit from in running hedge on Sir Dragonet and Morning Royalty but lost on the other three for a small loss overall. Not been easy whilst I was away I note and I come back to a tough day on Saturday and hardly a strong confidence play to get back into the groove. Also a fact that whilst the back percentage has improved through May, my usual strong point of laying has taken a 6% nosedive. Whilst this has just levelled me to my normal annual average, still a worrying stat. Can only take note and work harder on the lays with again this first day back’s offering far from a clear one.

I’ve ended with it because Prejudice does look a possible oppose because of it being a highly competitive race with chances for all the top five and the heavy ground being a probable question mark for all except Paradise Boy who also holds my ‘way in horse’ Gantier on past form. His price is value too so that’s my criteria for the day. Nothing much clearer than that. Prejudice looks dodgy as a lay despite being held on last run by Gantier and Alhaazm because he has excuses on weight turnaround and fitness this time that could help him turn round that form. Clincher for me though is that extra furlong not guaranteed to suit on breeding and lack of stamina in the breeding also not great for the long way home that is Haydock and especially not Haydock in the Heavy. Dettori back on Gantier tempts me because the time I’ve worked around is his winning time at Newcastle – a race we played in you’ll remember – and Newcastle on the all weather is perhaps comparable to Haydock in the Heavy. We shall see. I have Gantier on side but have plumped for the value on Paradise Boy as my back because of back form and value. Not an overly confident return so modest staking once more. I’ll start increasing stakes a tad once I get something I’m more confident of. Sunday over jumps looks to have something for us if Get Out The Gate runs.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on PREJUDICE (around 3.25 : no greater than 3.5)

0.1pt BACK on PARADISE BOY (9.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

31st:      -0.192 (+2.1578) Lay @ 1.96

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 107/160 = 66.87% :   BACKS: 27/101 = 26.73%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate – Entered for Perth (June 9th)

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29) & King Edward (June 21)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy – Entered for Queen Anne(June 18) & Prince of Wales (June 19)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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